固定收益周报：关注债券超调后的机会-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remaining unchanged. The real - sector debt growth rate is expected to decline, and the government debt growth rate is also trending down. [2][17] - Currently, the stock - bond ratio favors stocks due to the impact of the Vanke event on bonds, but in the future, with the assumptions of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite, the stock - bond ratio will shift towards bonds, and the equity style will lean towards value. [6][24] - The US economic situation is similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001. The Fed has raised its economic growth forecasts for 2025 - 2027, indicating that the worst for the US economy may be over, and China's external environment honeymoon period has ended. [7][22] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended portfolio is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. [8][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to stabilize around 8.6% in November and then decline, returning to a de - leveraging state. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4%. [2][17] - The government debt (including national and local bonds) net increased by 354.7 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 248 billion yuan), and is expected to net decrease by 73.3 billion yuan next week. The government debt growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year. [3][18] - The money market marginally relaxed last week. This week, there may still be some recovery momentum in the money market, but the time and space are limited. Attention should be paid to whether a peak in the money market is formed this week. [2][17] 3.1.2 Asset Side - The physical quantity data in October continued to weaken compared to September. The key is to focus on when the economy will stabilize or even show marginal upward movement. The nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. [4][19] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, due to the marginal relaxation of the money market and the impact of the Vanke event, bonds performed poorly, while stocks were strong, with the growth style outperforming in the equity market. The ten - year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.84%, the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.40%, and the 30 - year bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.19%. [6][21] - The recommended portfolio is to shift from bonds to full - position equities, but the equity investment is more concentrated in value stocks. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.51pct last week and has underperformed by - 5.23pct since July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300). [6][21] - Bonds were affected by the Vanke event and declined. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to enter after the over - adjustment. If a peak in the money market occurs this week, investors in the equity market are advised to shift to a defensive position. The recommended portfolio for this week is the SSE 50 index (80% position) and the CSI 1000 index (20% position). [8][24] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.6%, and the ChiNext Index rose 4.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing had the largest increases, while petroleum and petrochemicals, banking, coal, and transportation had the largest declines. [29] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 28, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, computer, communication, and machinery, with values of 17.7%, 10.6%, 7.1%, 6.9%, and 6.4% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel, with values of 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively. [32] - This week, the top five industries with the largest increase in crowding were electronics, communication, machinery, retail, and media, with increases of 2.6%, 1.9%, 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively. The top five with a decline were non - bank finance, basic chemicals, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and banking, with declines of 1%, 0.9%, 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. [32] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were media, communication, national defense and military industry, social services, and electronics, while coal, steel, beauty care, power equipment, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. [33] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, media, comprehensive, and light manufacturing had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, food and beverage, and steel had the largest declines. [37] - As of November 28, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, securities, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics. [38] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there was a marginal recovery. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8 in October, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index declined slightly week - on - week in the latest week, and the port cargo throughput decreased. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in October and increased in the first 20 days of November, while Vietnam's export growth rate slightly declined. [42] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price declined in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume decreased. The capacity utilization rate of ten major industries showed a continuous increase from May to August 2025, a continuous decline from September to October, and a slight increase in November but still at a historical low. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the new - housing trading volume remained at a historical low, and the second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally. [42] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of November (November 24 - 28), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 6%, 4.9%, 4.1%, and 3.1% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 1.6% weekly. [59] - As of November 28, based on the latest net value and share estimates, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.83 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024. [59] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. [65]