硫磺：向全球资源博弈下的新周期演进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that sulfur prices have been on the rise since the second half of 2024, reaching a significant high of 3950 CNY/ton as of November 25, 2025, indicating a structural change in both supply and demand dynamics [1][26] - The report emphasizes that sulfur is primarily a byproduct of the petroleum and natural gas industries, and its pricing is heavily influenced by global supply and demand rather than domestic factors [1][27] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have severely affected sulfur supply, with Russian exports plummeting from 3.9 million tons in 2019 to just 1.04 million tons in 2024 [2][37] - The demand for sulfur is expected to surge due to the rapid expansion of lithium iron phosphate production in China, which is projected to exceed 360,000 tons in 2025, significantly increasing sulfur consumption [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Sulfur as an Industrial Byproduct - Sulfur is a crucial industrial raw material, primarily used in the production of sulfuric acid, which is a key indicator of industrial development [13][18] - The majority of sulfur is produced as a byproduct of oil refining, with 70.62% from petroleum and 25.53% from natural gas [14] 2. Sulfur Price Review - Historical price trends show three major price surges in 2008, 2022, and 2025, driven by global supply disruptions and increased demand [24][25] - As of November 22, 2025, sulfur prices reached 3985 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 152.22% [26] 3. Supply Dynamics - Global refining capacity is expected to decline, limiting sulfur supply growth, with significant impacts from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine affecting Russian production [32][37] - The report forecasts a supply gap of -30/-513/-405 million tons for sulfur from 2025 to 2027, indicating a tightening market [49] 4. Demand Drivers - The demand for sulfur is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of the lithium iron phosphate sector, which is expected to account for 8% of sulfur demand by 2025 [39][42] - Indonesia's MHP production is anticipated to add 658,000 tons of sulfur demand, further straining global supply [42] 5. Related Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in sulfur production and recovery, such as Sinopec and PetroChina, which are expected to benefit from rising sulfur prices [9]