国泰君安期货研究周报：镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行，不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力-20251130

Report Date - The report is dated November 30, 2025 [1][4][29][55][81][95][110][135][160][179][192] Investment Ratings - The document does not mention any specific investment ratings for the industries. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range due to fundamental constraints on the upside, with refined nickel inventory issues and low - cost supply expectations. Stainless steel may show a weak fundamental situation with limited downside due to cost support and concerns about Indonesian policies [4][5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand is weakening, with inventory accumulation. Polysilicon's price fluctuations are increasing, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration [30][34][35] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices face upward pressure due to seasonal weakening of demand and the resumption of production in large factories [55][58] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is experiencing a short - term technical rebound and waiting for confirmation of the production inflection point. Soybean oil is range - bound with limited drivers from US soybeans [82][83][85] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to trade in a volatile manner. For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans; for soybean No.1, focus on Sino - US trade sentiment [95][99] Corn - Corn is expected to trade in a high - range with a combination of factors such as CBOT price movements, wheat price trends, and starch inventory changes [110][112][113][115] Sugar - Internationally, sugar is in a low - range consolidation. Domestically, it is in a narrow - range adjustment, with supply and demand and policy factors influencing the market [135][137][158] Cotton - Cotton is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term, but the upside space is limited due to new cotton listings and potential hedging by ginning factories [160][177] Live Hogs - Live hog spot prices are expected to be weak, while the futures market shows a divergence between futures and spot prices, with the industrial logic expected to return [180][181][182] Peanuts - Peanuts' spot prices show regional differentiation. The futures market is expected to strengthen with a narrowing basis and intensified capital games [192][193][194] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Nickel has inventory and supply expectations issues, while stainless steel has high inventory and weak supply - demand [4][5] - Inventory: Refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - stainless steel inventories have different trends [6][8] - Market News: There are events in Indonesia's nickel mining industry and changes in subsidy policies [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: Industrial silicon's futures price rises while the spot price falls; polysilicon's futures price rises and the spot price is stable [30] - Supply - Demand: Both industries have inventory accumulation, with changes in production and demand on both the supply and demand sides [31][32] - Outlook: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's price fluctuations are large, with specific price ranges predicted [34][35] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movements: The futures price has high volatility and an upward trend, while the spot price also rises [55] - Supply - Demand: There are policy, raw material, production, and demand factors affecting the market, and inventory reduction is less than expected [56][57] - Outlook: The price faces upward pressure due to seasonal demand and production resumption [58] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Performance: Palm oil and soybean oil had different price trends last week [82] - Current Situation: Palm oil's production and inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia are key factors, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean data and South American weather [83][84][85] - Data: There are detailed price, volume, and inventory data for both oils [88][90][92] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Previous Week's Market: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybean No.1 had different price trends last week, with corresponding fundamental factors [95] - Domestic Spot: There are changes in domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1's trading volume, delivery volume, basis, inventory, and price [96][97][98] - Outlook: Both are expected to trade in a volatile manner, with specific factors to focus on [99] Corn - Market Review: The spot and futures prices of corn rose last week, with changes in related indicators such as basis and starch inventory [110][111][115] - Market Outlook: Factors such as CBOT price, wheat price, and starch inventory will affect the corn market [112][113][115] Sugar - Market Review: Internationally, there are changes in the dollar index, oil price, and sugar price; domestically, there are changes in spot and futures prices and supply - demand expectations [135][136] - Market Outlook: Internationally, it is in a low - range consolidation; domestically, it is in a narrow - range adjustment, with factors such as supply - demand and policy to focus on [137][158] Cotton - Market Review: ICE cotton rebounds, and domestic cotton futures rise, with different fundamental factors at home and abroad [160][163] - Outlook: Cotton is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [177] Live Hogs - Market Review: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are strong, with changes in supply - demand and basis [180] - Market Outlook: Spot prices are expected to be weak, and the futures market shows a divergence between futures and spot prices [181][182] Peanuts - Market Review: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices rise, with different trends in different regions [192] - Market Outlook: Spot prices show regional differentiation, and the futures market is expected to strengthen with a narrowing basis and intensified capital games [193][194]