国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit its upward potential, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range. Consider shorting at high levels and using options to hedge upside risks [4]. - Stainless steel: With high inventory, weak supply - demand balance, and cost factors limiting the downside, it is suitable for range - bound trading [5]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - demand situation has weakened, with inventory accumulation and a possible decline in supply from November, and demand showing a weak pattern [30][31][32]. - Polysilicon: Price fluctuations have intensified, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipt registration. The fundamental situation is weakening, but the market is focused on the narrative of fewer warehouse receipts [30][32][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Demand is seasonally weakening, and with the expected resumption of production by major manufacturers, the price faces upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][56][58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Nickel: The real - world fundamentals are under pressure, with refined nickel inventory accumulation and the expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term. Although the Fed's dovish remarks have eased macro - pressure, and there are uncertainties in Indonesian policies, it is not advisable to short at low levels, and shorting at high levels is recommended [4]. - Stainless steel: The supply - demand situation is weakening, with high upstream inventory, low terminal investment growth, and a decrease in production in December. Cost factors limit the downside, and range - bound trading is appropriate [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Tracking - Nickel: On November 28, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,572 tons to 54,716 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 810 tons to 254,760 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: On November 15, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 30,225 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - month increase of 3%. On November 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 108.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are various events in Indonesia, including the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and potential quota cuts. China has paused an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia, and the Fed's dovish remarks have affected market sentiment [9][10][12]. 3.1.4 Key Data Tracking - Data on nickel and stainless steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and prices of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products, are provided [14]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has risen, while the spot price has fallen. The盘面 price closed at 9,130 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have decreased [30]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has continued to rise, while the downstream spot price has started to fall. The盘面 price closed at 56,420 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon: Supply - side, production has decreased in Sichuan and Xinjiang, and inventory has accumulated. Demand - side, downstream demand is weakly rigid, with reduced demand from polysilicon, uncertain organic silicon production cuts, low aluminum alloy procurement enthusiasm, and weak export demand [31][32]. - Polysilicon: Supply - side, short - term weekly production has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. Demand - side, silicon wafer production has decreased, and the willingness to accept spot prices has declined [32]. 3.2.3后市 Views - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to whether organic silicon enterprises implement production cuts [34][35]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, with an expected trading range of 53,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton next week. The market is in an extreme situation with high volatility [35]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The lithium carbonate futures contract has continued to be highly volatile, with the overall center of gravity rising. The 2601 contract closed at 94,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,620 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 1,450 yuan/ton to 93,750 yuan/ton [55]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will regulate the irrational competition in the battery industry. Raw material: The application for the renewal of Ningde Times' lithium mine license has been accepted, and the shipment volumes of Australian and Chilean mines are at relatively high levels. Supply - demand: Weekly production has decreased by 265 tons, mainly due to the seasonal decline in salt - lake production. December demand is uncertain, with some data showing a weakening trend, and the terminal energy - storage project winning bids have decreased [56]. - Inventory: This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,452 tons, but the de - stocking was less than expected. After the centralized cancellation of futures warehouse receipts, the remaining warehouse receipts are relatively low [57]. 3.3.3后市 Views - The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with an expected trading range of 85,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. A positive - spread strategy is recommended for inter - period trading. Lithium salt manufacturers are advised to hedge for profit - locking, and downstream enterprises are advised to reduce hedging ratios [58][59][62].