宏观与大类资产周报：不疾不徐-20251130

Domestic Economic Outlook - November high-frequency data generally weaker than seasonal trends, indicating a need for more growth-stabilizing policies to support early 2026 economic recovery[2] - October industrial enterprise profit growth fell to -5.5%, a significant drop from 21.6% and 20.4% in August and September respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand[21] - November PMI data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating continued contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5[21] International Economic Insights - Revelio Labs predicts a loss of 9,000 non-farm jobs in the U.S. for October, primarily due to government employment declines from shutdowns[2] - December FOMC likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a hawkish outlook for future rate cuts in Q1 2026 due to inflation pressures[2] Asset Market Trends - Anticipated "spring rally" in the domestic market driven by technology growth, with potential buying opportunities in mid to late December[3] - U.S. AI and inflation trades are shifting from exclusion to resonance, suggesting a prolonged easing cycle to maintain the bull market until H2 2026[3] - December is expected to see hawkish rate cuts alongside rising interest rate expectations in Japan, leading to uncertainty in U.S. equities for the following month[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Overall liquidity remains stable, with a slight increase in benchmark rates by approximately 0.79 basis points[23] - The central bank's open market operations have tightened, with a total reverse repo injection of 15,118 billion yuan for the week[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%[42] - Gold prices have surpassed 4,200, while crude oil experienced slight declines[40]