Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not strongly driven, and the balance sheet may be less optimistic than previously expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the "anti - involution" in the silicone industry. The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, although the fundamentals have weakened significantly, leading silicon material companies are determined to maintain prices, resulting in a high virtual - to - real ratio of the PS2601 contract. Short - term polysilicon volatility has increased, and investors are advised to operate with caution [3][15][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon closed at 9,130 yuan/ton this week, up 170 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, while the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon closed at 56,425 yuan/ton, up 3,065 yuan/ton from last week. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. November Centralized Cancellations, Focus on New Warehouse Receipt Registrations - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated this week. In December, the total number of open furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan may drop below 20. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons. Due to weaker - than - expected organic silicon and export demand, it is difficult to reduce inventory from December to the first quarter of next year. Northern silicon factories conduct hedging when the price rises, and downstream buyers purchase based on rigid demand [11] - Organic Silicon: The price of organic silicon rose slightly this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 75.43%, with a weekly output of 49,900 tons, up 1.42% from the previous week, and inventory of 44,700 tons, up 2.05%. Organic silicon monomer factories announced a production cut plan on December 1, but the action is not obvious yet. The market is determined to maintain prices, but demand is weak [11][12] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated this week. The prices of dense re - feeding material and granular material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg and 50 - 51 yuan/kg respectively. The low - price range showed signs of loosening. The planned production in December is expected to be 115,000 tons. As of November 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 281,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week. It is difficult for the spot price to rise against the trend [12] - Silicon Wafers: The price of silicon wafers dropped significantly this week. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers fell to 1.20/1.25/1.55 yuan/piece. The average price of each size has dropped to or below the cash cost. Production cuts are obvious, and the planned production in December is expected to be 45GW. As of November 27, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.5GW, up 0.78GW from the previous week [13] - Battery Cells: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.275, and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively. As of November 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.05GW, up 1.84GW from the previous week. Although there are production cut plans in December, it is difficult to completely improve the supply - demand situation [13] - Components: The price of components remained basically stable this week. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects for large customers was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some large - scale procurement projects showed demand for high - power components above 700W, with quotes ranging from 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand has declined significantly, and new orders are scarce. The planned production in December may drop significantly, and the domestic planned production is only 37GW. As of November 10, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 30.2GW, down 0.1GW from the previous week [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Investors can focus on range - trading opportunities [3][15] - Polysilicon: Due to increased short - term volatility, investors are advised to operate with caution [3][17] 4. Hot News - A polysilicon plant with an annual output of 30,000 tons will be built in Morocco. From January to October, the cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in China was 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa's industrial silicon project was successfully capped [18] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory data [20][30][40]
11月集中注销，关注新仓单注册情况
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-30 10:46