利率：利率重视12月债市的赚钱效应

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].