能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate [102] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The European Parliament voted to postpone the implementation of EUDR by 12 months. The new implementation schedule is December 30, 2026, for large - and medium - sized operators and June 30, 2027, for small and micro operators [5] - Floods in southern Thailand may lead to a rubber shortage. At least 13 million rai of rubber plantations were affected, and the rubber production loss exceeded 20,000 tons [6] - In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to China increased by 3% [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures closed higher, with NR slightly declining. On November 28, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,410 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous period; NR2601 was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [9][11] 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - On November 28, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 410 yuan/ton, down 5.13% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 56.25% [15] 3.4 Other Spreads - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread decreased [18] - In the import rubber market, traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse replacement. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after a reduction in buying orders, and the spot of Thai mixed rubber showed a near - end premium [21] - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [24] 3.5 Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene raw materials oscillated narrowly, and the cost did not boost the market price. The production profit of butadiene rubber remained at a good level. The domestic output of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the downstream continued to push down prices [30] 3.6 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled funds increased; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled funds also increased [33] 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - In Thailand, the southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In China, the rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have ended [38][40] - As domestic production areas gradually enter the production - reduction and tapping - suspension season, and there is continuous heavy rainfall and flood risks in southern Thailand and Vietnam, the supply tightening expectation has increased, and domestic raw material prices have remained firm [42] - The water - cup spread in Thailand widened. The spread of Hainan glue into the latex concentrate factory - into the whole - milk factory was stable, while the spread of Yunnan glue widened [46] - The processing profit of natural rubber has generally recovered, and the delivery profit in Hainan and Yunnan has continued to pick up [49][53] - In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly [59][62] - In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports, while the mixed rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month [65] - In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Exports to China rebounded seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex [71] - In October, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, while exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [73] - In October, China imported 510,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89% [77] 3.7.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated. The inventory days of tires decreased, indicating a turning point in the tire inventory accumulation trend [83] - In October, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, and the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [84] - In October, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [87] 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber increased significantly, showing a pattern of a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of dark - colored rubber in Qingdao Port increased at a larger amplitude [94] - The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber increased week - on - week [99] 3.8 This Week's View Summary - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase. The supply side of tire enterprises is operating weakly [102][103]