能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week, stabilized, and rebounded slightly near the weekend. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering the upcoming end of Saudi Arabia's major maintenance, the short - term weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. However, Russian exports have started to decline, and a large amount of spot has been piled up in floating storage near Russia, which will support high - sulfur fuel oil prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the number of spot goods flowing to the Asia - Pacific region has decreased due to refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' deep - processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production. But Brazilian and Kuwaiti refineries are expected to resume operations next month, which will increase supply and put pressure on prices. The spot market's transaction premium has declined, and prices may fall further as supply recovery is reflected in shipping data. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2400 - 2500, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3000 - 3250. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The contango structure of FU and LU spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Refinery Operations: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: It shows the monthly production and commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, including low - sulfur fuel oil production, but no specific analysis is provided. [18][19] Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, ARA in Europe, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [27][29][30] Price and Spreads - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [35][36][37][39][42] - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in New York Harbor, and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [40][44][45] - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51][52][53][55] - Fuel Oil Spot Spreads: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [57] - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [59][60][61] - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [63] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [68][70] - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [72] - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as Singapore, China, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [74] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review and Logic: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. The internal - external spreads began to shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short - position holdings still exceeded the long - position holdings, causing FU to underperform the external spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a large amount of low - sulfur components were expected to enter Zhoushan at the end of the month, so the internal - external spread may continue to narrow in the short term. [77] - Internal - External Spreads Data: It provides the internal - external spreads data of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from November 24 - 28, 2025. [78] - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, and the spread between LU and Singapore from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [81][82][84] - Futures Market Internal - External Spreads: It shows the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [85][86][87] - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: It shows the trading volume and position changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [89][90][91][93][95][96] - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [99][100]