黑色金属周报合集-20251130

Report Overview - The report is a weekly collection of black metal research by Guotai Junan Futures, covering steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and ferroalloys [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Steel: Steel prices oscillate due to the game between demand and cost [6] - Iron Ore: Spot prices are strong, but future supply - demand pressure remains [75] - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply expectations are adjusted, leading to a downward revision of valuations [133] - Ferroalloys: The sentiment at the raw material end cools, and the alloys oscillate at a low level [214] Summary by Category 1. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Rebar supply is 206.1 (-19) tons, demand is 227.9 (-2.8) tons, and inventory is 531.5 (-21.9) tons; Hot - rolled coil supply is 319.0 (+3) tons, demand is 320.2 (-4.2) tons, and inventory is 400.9 (-1.2) tons [7] - Macro Environment: Overseas, the labor market is weakening, and the Fed may cut interest rates. Domestically, short - term policy stimulus probability is low, and coal trading has shifted from "anti - involution" to "supply - guarantee". The black industry chain has entered a pattern of weak supply and demand [8] - Rebar Details: Last week, Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, 01 - contract price was 3110 (+53) yuan/ton, 01 - contract basis was 140 (-23) yuan/ton, and 01 - 05 spread was - 7 (+34) yuan/ton. New home sales are low, while second - hand home sales remain high [24][28] - Hot - Rolled Coil Details: Last week, Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, 01 - contract futures price was 3302 (+32) yuan/ton, 01 - contract basis was - 12 (-12) yuan/ton, and 01 - 05 spread was 14 (+18) yuan/ton. Demand in the peak season is weak, but exports remain high [43][44] 2. Iron Ore - Supply: Overseas shipments decreased week - on - week but remained relatively high year - on - year. The total global shipment was 3278 (-238) tons, and the cumulative global shipment from the beginning of the year to the 47th week of 2025 was 146482.1 tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase [75][76] - Demand: Blast furnace start - up declined again, and the recovery of winter demand may be limited. The 247 - enterprise iron - making output was 234.68 (-1.6) tons [77] - Contract and Spot Price: The main 01 - contract price oscillated strongly, closing at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a position of 391,000 hands (a decrease of 69,500 hands). The average daily trading volume was 236,000 hands (a week - on - week decrease of 44,500 hands). Medium - and low - grade spot prices remained relatively strong [79][84] 3. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The supply recovery in the production area is slow, and Mongolia maintains a high traffic volume. The flow - auction rate of online coking coal auctions is high, and downstream procurement sentiment is low. The price of coking coal futures has declined. For example, on November 28, 2025, the closing price of the coking coal 2601 futures was 1067.0 (-8.5) yuan/ton [134][197] - Coke: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills has changed. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills has also changed. The price of coke futures has declined. For example, on November 28, 2025, the closing price of the coke 2601 futures was 1574.5 (-32.5) yuan/ton [172][199] 4. Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - Silicon Iron: This week, the price of the silicon iron 2603 contract oscillated weakly, closing at 5390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/ton. The supply decreased, and the inventory situation was complex. The cost may loosen [219][277] - Manganese Silicon: The price of the manganese silicon 2601 contract oscillated, closing at 5612 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. The supply decreased, and the cost was relatively stable. The inventory of alloy plants increased, and the inventory of steel mills showed a seasonal increase [219][232]