豆粕:关注中方采购美豆情况,盘面震荡,豆一,关注中美贸易情绪,盘面震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-30 11:21

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - In the next week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be continuously paid to China's purchases of US soybeans. For soybean meal, there is currently no other driving force, and the focus is on China's purchases of US soybeans. Additionally, it is reported that China and the US are about to sign a soybean trade agreement, so the progress of this event should be monitored. For soybeans, the spot price is stable. The increase in state - reserve purchase points and the slight increase in the purchase price of some protein soybeans have a positive impact on the spot market. The disk situation depends on Sino - US trade sentiment [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents 1. Futures Price Changes Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - US soybean futures prices rose slightly. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of November 28, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.95%, while the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 0.38%. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were slightly stronger, and soybean futures prices were neutral. In the week of November 28, the main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.06%, and the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly decrease of 0.02% [1]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was positive for US soybeans. From November 24 to 28, China purchased a total of about 435,000 tons of US soybeans (all for delivery in the 2025/26 season). - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased slightly week - on - week, with a neutral impact. As of the week of November 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of disk crushing increased slightly week - on - week. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was still slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 20, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 81%, compared with 71% in the previous week and about 86% in the same period last year. Irregular rainfall in most soybean plantations in the Brazilian Cerrado limited the sowing progress and raised concerns about yields. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans was slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 19, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24.6%, compared with about 35.8% in the same period last year. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America: In the next two weeks (November 28 - December 12), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be low, and the temperature will be "partially high (November 28 - December 2) and mostly normal"; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be basically normal (high at the end of November and decreasing in early December), and the temperature will fluctuate around the average. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a major issue, with a neutral impact [1]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 240,000 tons in the previous week. - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 190,000 tons in the previous week. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 10 yuan/ton, compared with about 3 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 153 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 14% and a year - on - year increase of about 49%. - Crushing volume: The weekly crushing volume of soybeans decreased, and it is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.2 million tons (2.33 million tons in the previous week and 1.89 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 61% (64% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (November 29 - December 5), the expected crushing volume of soybeans in oil mills is about 2.14 million tons (1.66 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 59% (47% in the same period last year) [2][3]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - Soybean price: The soybean price was stable. The net - grain purchase price of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 3,960 - 4,080 yuan/ton, the net - grain purchase price in some parts of Inner China was in the range of 4,860 - 5,060 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,460 - 4,680 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. - State - reserve purchase: The number of state - reserve purchase points continued to increase, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans was raised, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Two new state - reserve purchase points were added on November 28, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans increased. - Farmer and trader behavior: Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and traders had slow buying and selling. Many grass - roots farmers showed obvious reluctance to sell, waiting for price increases. Most traders reported slow procurement and slow sales. - Market demand: The demand in the northern sales area increased, while that in the southern area was stable. In the northern market, the sales of Northeast soybeans were acceptable due to the increase in demand for soy products caused by the drop in temperature. In the southern region, the sales were slow, and there were no new signs of demand for terminal soy products in many places [4].

豆粕:关注中方采购美豆情况,盘面震荡,豆一,关注中美贸易情绪,盘面震荡 - Reportify