农产品组行业研究报告：产能逐步去化，猪周期有望迎来拐点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the short - term strategy is cautiously bearish, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is cautiously bullish [9] - For the egg market, the strategy is neutral [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pig Market: In 2025, the pig market showed an oscillating downward trend. The stable inventory of reproductive sows led to relatively moderate price fluctuations. The industry's production efficiency improvement and policy - guided slaughter rhythm adjustment pushed pig prices down, causing the industry to fall into a loss. The current focus is on the "capacity reduction" process. In the short term (end - 2025 to Q1 2026), due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices will remain weakly oscillating. In the medium - to - long term (after June 2026), as capacity data drops, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [1][6][7] - Egg Market: In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. High chicken - fry sales in the first half of the year led to a high inventory of laying hens. Traditional seasonal demand boosts were not obvious, and prices showed an oscillating downward trend throughout the year. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but the high inventory of laying hens makes it difficult to substantially relieve short - term supply pressure. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues, supply pressure is expected to ease, and the market will operate with seasonal fluctuations [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Pig Market Review - Spot and Futures Market Trends: Pig prices in 2025 mainly oscillated downward. After a small rebound in the middle of the year, prices fell due to policy and supply factors. In the first quarter, prices were low and stable. In April, prices rose due to feed cost increases, then fell back. In June - July, prices rose again due to factors like reduced slaughter weight and secondary fattening, and then fell rapidly after August [19][21][24] Pig Breeding Profit and Capacity Cycle - Pig Capacity Cycle: In 2025, the pig capacity was stable, with the inventory of reproductive sows fluctuating around 40.5 million. Starting from October, the inventory decreased to 39.9 million due to "capacity reduction" policies and industry losses, and it is expected to continue to decline [26] Pig Supply Situation - Capacity - side Changes: From June 2024 to September 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was stable at around 40.5 million, which supported high pig slaughter volumes from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026. After October 2025, the inventory decreased, which may adjust the supply pattern in the second half of 2026 [28] - MSY Changes: In 2025, China's pig MSY was about 21, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. With the improvement of breeding technology, PSY and MSY are expected to continue to rise [33] - Breeding Profit Changes: Low feed costs and cost - control measures of large - scale farms have reduced breeding costs. Currently, self - breeding and self - fattening profits are around - 100 yuan per head, while purchasing piglets for fattening incurs a greater loss of about - 270 yuan per head [36] - Pig Slaughter Weight and Secondary Fattening: During the pig - price decline, farmers' reluctance to sell led to a high average slaughter weight. Secondary fattening in April and October provided short - term price support, but its impact on the market is expected to be mild in the future [41][43] Pig Demand Situation - Pig Slaughter: As pig prices fell, the frozen - meat inventory increased, and the slaughter data did not fully reflect consumption. In October, the average pig price decreased by 28% year - on - year, but the slaughter volume increased by 26.8%. The impact of year - end demand on pig prices remains to be seen [45] Domestic Pig - Breeding Industry Structure Changes - Increased Concentration of Leading Enterprises: In 2025, the market share of leading pig - breeding enterprises continued to increase. The top ten and top 23 group farms had market shares of 24.6% and 27.8% respectively from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points. The pig market is expected to remain in a low - volatility cycle [54] Pig Market Outlook - Short - term: Due to high supply pressure and limited demand support, pig prices at the end of 2025 and in Q1 2026 will remain weakly oscillating [7] - Medium - to - long - term: After June 2026, as capacity reduction affects supply and the third quarter is a slaughter off - season, supply pressure will ease, and pig prices may turn upward. However, the impact of diseases needs to be watched [8] 2025 Egg Market Review - Spot and Futures Market Trends: In 2025, egg prices showed a two - stage decline. High laying - hen inventory put pressure on prices at the beginning of the year. After a short - term rebound in the middle of the year, prices continued to fall due to oversupply. At the end of the year, prices rebounded due to capacity reduction and increased demand [64][68][72] Egg Supply Situation - Egg Inventory and Chicken - fry Sales: As of the end of November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still 8.46% higher year - on - year. In November, chicken - fry sales were 36.03 million, a slight month - on - month increase. Overall, farmers' willingness to replenish the flock is still insufficient [76] - Culled - hen Slaughter: Currently, the total culled - hen slaughter volume has increased, with a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The average age of culled hens has decreased to 491 days [79] - Egg - laying Hen Breeding Costs and Profits: Currently, egg - laying hen breeding costs are 3.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The breeding profit is - 0.51 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 18.6%. The industry is still in a loss [83] Egg Demand Situation - Production - area Shipment Volume: As of November 28, 2025, the total egg shipment volume was 295,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.95%. With the approaching of the demand peak season, future shipment volumes may increase [86] - Sales - area Receipt Volume: As of November 28, 2025, the receipt volume in the Beijing market decreased by 19.5% month - on - month, while that in the Guangdong market increased by 6.28% month - on - month, showing a significant difference between the north and the south [90] - Egg Market Inventory: As of November 28, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a month - on - month decrease of 21.26%, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10%, indicating obvious inventory reduction [94] Egg Market Outlook - In 2025, the egg market was dominated by high supply and weak demand. Currently, capacity reduction has started, but short - term supply pressure remains high. In 2026, as capacity reduction continues and the supply - conduction cycle is about four months, supply pressure is expected to ease. The market will operate with seasonal fluctuations, and two key variables need to be tracked: the rhythm and intensity of capacity reduction and the actual demand boost effect [95][96][98]