国泰君安期货：能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251130

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: November 30, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Glass Industry Core View - The glass market is currently in a sideways trend. It may rebound in the short - term due to the intersection of short - term production cut expectations and policy expectations, but long - term pressure remains due to factors such as forward premium and high inventory [2][3] Supply - As of November 27, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 220 in operation and 76 cold - repaired. The开工率 was 74.32% and the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%. As of November 20, the daily output was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% [2][3] - Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd.'s Yijun Second Line with a designed capacity of 900 tons stopped feeding during the week, and there were no ignition lines [2][3] - The total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines in 2025 was 15,580 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 13,910 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,790 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting volume of 10,030 tons. The potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 10,700 tons/day [6][7][8] Demand - As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.9 days, a decrease of 8.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year. In November, the average orders of deep - processing samples in each region decreased compared to the beginning of the month. The weak order situation led to some processing plants having phased holidays [2][3] Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million heavy cases, a decrease of 941,000 heavy cases month - on - month (1.49% decrease) and an increase of 27.23% year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.5 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [2][3] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, with most remaining unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 yuan/ton), in central China's Hubei region it was around 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable) [15][19] - The profit of petroleum coke was around - 31 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fueled were around - 227 and 4 yuan/ton respectively [23][27] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways and weak, with upper pressure at 1,080 - 1,100 and lower support at 950 - 960 - Inter - period: Temporarily buy 01 and sell 05 - Inter - variety: Short - term buy glass and sell soda ash [2][3] Photovoltaic Glass Industry Price and Profit - Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.96% month - on - month; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is around 19.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.27% month - on - month [42][44] Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, a decrease of 0.73% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 29.33 days, an increase of 4.25% month - on - month [50][54] Soda Ash Industry Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and production cuts. The capacity utilization rate was 80%, down from 82.7% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is around 383,000 tons/week [59][61][62] Inventory - The domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (3.47% decrease) from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 40,500 tons month - on - month [65][67][68] Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,150 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,150 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer's ex - factory price remained unchanged [75][79] - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 140 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China was - 38 yuan/ton [84] Strategy - Due to the recent continuation of production cuts and inventory decline, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the inter - period spread [80]