能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate within the valuation range in the short - term. The fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure but are marginally improving, and it is predicted to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are also under pressure, but it is supported by the valuation, and it will operate within the valuation range [2][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (20251121 - 1127), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.31 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. Next week, the output is expected to be around 11.25 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [5]. - The butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion to meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene. The expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [12][14]. - Many butadiene production enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out equipment maintenance, which affects the output [18]. Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a high year - on - year level. In the short - term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene equipment decreases in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [7]. - The ABS industry has a large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. The SBS industry's operating rate has slightly increased, maintaining a rigid demand for butadiene with little change [7]. Inventory - In the current cycle (20251120 - 1126), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.24%. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.04% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory increased by 18.84% month - on - month. The port inventory may remain under pressure in the short - term [5]. Synthetic Rubber (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) Supply - In the current cycle, the Maoming Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit was shut down for maintenance, the Zhejiang Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit restarted production, and the Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene rubber unit was put into production but has not yet produced. The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene units are expected to gradually resume production [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to increase next week, but the overall increase is limited. The operating rates of maintenance enterprises are gradually returning to normal levels, which will drive the recovery of the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall sales pressure remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand also remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. The raw material buyers actively followed up this cycle, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber was slightly strengthened. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. The high - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and the private price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, and some of the transactions weakened. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9800 - 10500 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower valuation to the NR - BR spread support for the lower valuation. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton on the futures market [4].