几内亚矿价持稳，氧化铝供应继续修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's bauxite prices remain stable, and alumina supply continues to recover. The alumina market is in an oversupply stage. Although there is theoretical downward space for prices, excessive speculation is not advisable. A bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [1][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi's 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan's at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou's 60/6 bauxite at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines resumed production, but the increase was limited. During the heating season, production and environmental supervision in northern mines tightened, with few mines over - producing. Domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term, and the actual market circulation of ore is extremely limited. Guinea's bauxite is priced at 70 - 71 dollars/dry ton. After the rainy season, its shipping volume is recovering. 398.7 million tons of new ore arrived, including 301.2 million tons from Guinea and 97.5 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - Alumina: Last week, alumina spot prices declined slightly. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2831.9 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week. Imported alumina port quotes were 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Aluminum plants have high inventories and sufficient long - term orders, resulting in limited spot transactions. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina from East Australia were sold at FOB 311.50 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 2760 yuan/ton, and the import window opened. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2817 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 45 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the operating capacity, which had decreased due to maintenance, environmental protection, and other factors, began to rise again after the end of maintenance. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 84.4% [2][12] - Demand: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new production capacity started power - on on November 21. The first stage plans to put into operation 60 electrolytic cells, equivalent to about 66,000 tons of production capacity, and 100,000 tons are planned to be launched this year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.243 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, Indonesia's KAI electrolytic aluminum plant was officially put into production in late November, planning to start 2 electrolytic cells per day, with an annualized operating capacity of about 8000 tons. India's Vedanta's Balco electrolytic aluminum plant expansion project is slowly being put into production, with an operating capacity of about 610,000 tons and an additional 50,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.596 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons week - on - week [13] - Inventory: As of Thursday (November 27), the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from last week. Remote electrolytic aluminum enterprises continue to absorb the current oversupply pressure by slightly increasing alumina inventories. In the Xinjiang region, some industrial chain groups' alumina inventories are increasing steadily. In the western region, some industrial chain and single - entity electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still in the process of increasing inventories through hedging and tax - included purchases. Although the winter storage actions of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are relatively small, the intention for winter storage is concentrated in the industry, especially in remote aluminum plants. Quantitatively, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are steadily increasing. Alumina enterprises' inventories are relatively low, while port inventories of imported alumina are relatively high [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 258,413 tons, an increase of 7,503 tons from last week. Last week, the alumina futures price continued to be weak. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan are in a loss situation, but their determination to cut production is still weak, and the industry remains oversupplied, with inventories continuing to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Since the industry is still in an oversupply stage, a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina: As of Friday (November 28), the Australian alumina quotation was about 313.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton from November 21. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching northern Chinese ports is about 2796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan. Affected by the decline in the Australian FOB price, the northern theoretical import profit rose to 52 yuan/ton [16] - End of 9 - Month Net Export of Chinese Alumina: In October 2025, China's alumina imports were 189,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year surge of 2923%; alumina exports were 176,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The net import of alumina in October was 13,000 tons, ending the 9 - month continuous net export pattern in 2025 [16] - Alumina Enterprises in Dilemma: ALD believes that after mid - December, the market supply pressure is expected to be more intense. Although strong price fluctuations are not expected for the time being, the inventory changes of alumina enterprises and electrolytic aluminum enterprises will be the main dynamic reference variables for later judgment [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost Side: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventories, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventories of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][25][27][29] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][34][35][40] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The report presents charts on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventories, alumina plants' alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventories, alumina port inventories, domestic total social alumina inventories, the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of alumina holding volume to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][50]