新能源、有色组行业铜年报：供应的老问题，需求的新展望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the center of copper prices is likely to continue rising. However, with the TC remaining at -$40 per ton, mine - end disturbances may not be able to drive significant price increases. The demand side may have positive momentum under the "15th Five - Year Plan", and macro - factors and the strong gold price may make copper price fluctuations more difficult to predict. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The supply - demand gap of copper is expected to gradually widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028, at which time processing fees are expected to recover. Short - term copper prices are supported by the supply - demand gap, while in the medium - to - long term, they will depend more on the realization of terminal demand [10]. - In 2026, the copper terminal demand will show a multi - polar driven pattern with relatively stable power demand and potential surprises from the electronics sector. But in 2026 specifically, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively weak real estate demand [15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - In 2025, copper prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, tight mineral supply, low processing fees, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the strong gold price pushed copper prices up. After that, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, copper prices dropped significantly around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the second half of the year, with loose macro - expectations, good demand in the AI and new energy fields, and supply disturbances such as the shutdown of Grasberg, the center of copper prices moved up again, and it entered a shock range at the end of the year [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Annual Mine - end Supply Disturbances and No Improvement in Mid - stream Smelting Profit Margins - In 2025, the TC price of imported copper concentrates continued to decline, reaching -$42.15 per ton by mid - November. Smelter profits mainly came from by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver. The TC price set by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in the middle of the year was $0 per ton, slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the tight supply situation at the mine end [10][24]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the production of major global copper miners showed a structural tightening trend, with output generally declining. For example, BHP's copper concentrate production decreased slightly, and Southern Copper, Freeport, and Zijin Mining all had different degrees of production cuts due to factors such as grade decline and accidents [10][26]. - Although the processing fees were low, the strong prices of by - products supported the growth of domestic refined copper production. The expansion of smelting capacity was slightly faster than that of the mine end. In the future, the profit of the copper industry chain will continue to concentrate upstream. The supply - demand gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028 [10][32][35]. 3.2.2 Refined Ore Supply Constraints Suppress Smelter Profits, and Scrap Copper Supply Also Has Short - term Bottlenecks - From January to October 2025, domestic refined copper production was about 1.115 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12%. Domestic smelting maintained a high operating rate, relying on the strong prices of by - products and scrap copper to offset the decline in processing fees. In the future, the sustainability of this state depends on the realization of overseas mine production and the support of by - products and scrap copper [13][41]. - From January to September 2025, scrap copper production was 902,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. However, due to policy adjustments and import constraints, the supply of scrap copper was limited and there was a risk of a slight decline in the future [42]. 3.2.3 The Tight Spot Pattern in Shanghai and London Continues, and Copper Prices Are Prone to Rise and Difficult to Fall under Tariff Expectations - From January to October 2025, domestic electrolytic copper imports decreased by 6.14% year - on - year, while exports increased by 29.44% year - on - year. The Comex premium led to the migration of inventories from London and Shanghai to the US. The Shanghai and London markets were in a tight Back structure, and if tariffs were implemented, the tight pattern of Shanghai copper would be difficult to ease, and the overall copper price center would be prone to rise [46][48]. 3.3 Primary Processing - end Situation Overview 3.3.1 Copper Rods - Grid Rush Installation and Temporarily Tight Refined Copper Lead to a Recovery in Processing Fees - In July - September 2025, the wire and cable tenders of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid increased by 18% year - on - year. Due to smelter maintenance, the production of 8 - mm copper rods decreased, and the processing fees rebounded from 550 yuan to 700 yuan. After that, the processing fees fell back to 600 - 650 yuan but were still higher than in 2024. In 2026, copper rod consumption may maintain positive growth, and the processing fee center may oscillate between 550 - 700 yuan [50][53]. 3.3.2 Copper Tubes - Air - conditioner Production Scheduling First High and Then Low, and Exports Rush to the "Tariff Window" - In July - August 2025, the production scheduling of household air - conditioners increased by 12%. In September, due to the possible increase in HVAC tariffs in 2026, copper tube exports increased by 26% year - on - year. After October, air - conditioner production scheduling decreased, and processing fees fell slightly. In 2026, domestic air - conditioner sales will enter the replacement cycle, and exports may be under pressure. If copper prices remain above 80,000 yuan, "aluminum replacing copper" may accelerate, and copper tube consumption may have zero growth, with the processing fee range at 4,500 - 5,200 yuan [55]. 3.3.3 Copper Foil - Lithium - battery Demand Is "Not Weak in the Off - season", and Processing Fees Bottomed out and Rebounded - In July 2025, the production scheduling of lithium - ion batteries decreased, and the operating rate of lithium - ion copper foil reached a minimum of 68%. After August, with the implementation of policies such as energy storage and "trading in the old for the new", the production scheduling of power batteries increased, and processing fees rebounded. In 2026, new copper foil production capacity will be mainly high - end projects, and processing fees are expected to continue to recover [58]. 3.4 Terminal Situation Overview 3.4.1 Power - A Solid Foundation for Copper Demand and Potential Demand Growth Points in the Construction of a New Power System - The power sector is the largest part of domestic copper terminal demand. According to the "15th Five - Year Plan", the strategic position of the power sector is emphasized again. By 2030, the copper consumption in the power sector is expected to reach more than 800 million tons. The growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar power and the construction of UHV projects will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. However, in 2026, the marginal growth rate of copper demand in the power sector may decline due to the possible short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and the slowdown of UHV construction [60][61][63]. 3.4.2 Real Estate - Structural Opportunities in the Stock Era - The real estate sector's demand for copper is concentrated in building wiring, pipeline systems, etc. Although the real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, there will be a major opportunity for demand structure transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan". The renovation of old communities, urban renewal, and the development of smart homes and "photovoltaic - energy storage - charging" integrated parking lots will drive copper demand. However, in 2026, the real estate sector may still drag down copper terminal demand [75][76][77]. 3.4.3 Automobiles - The Automobile Sector Still Has a Certain Pulling Effect on Demand under the Electrification Transformation - With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, they have become the core driving force for copper demand in the transportation sector. In 2024, new energy vehicles consumed about 1.068 billion tons of copper, accounting for about 60% of transportation copper demand. By 2030, the total copper consumption in the transportation sector is expected to exceed 2.4 billion tons [83][85]. 3.4.4 Home Appliances - The "15th Five - Year Plan" May Be an Era of Both Quantity and Quality Improvement - In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the home appliance industry will face the full upgrade of energy - efficiency standards and the wave of intelligence. The copper consumption of air - conditioners and refrigerators is expected to increase. The export market will also have certain growth, and the home appliance industry will maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 4% in copper consumption during the "15th Five - Year Plan" [92][93]. 3.4.5 Electronics Sector - The Most Important Demand Growth Point - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the domestic electronics information industry will continue to develop in the directions of high - end, electrification, and intelligence. PCB and electronic wiring harnesses will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. By 2030, the copper consumption in the electronics sector is expected to reach 2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% [100][101][102]. 3.4.6 Summary of Changes in Copper Terminal Demand in Each Sector - In 2026, the power, automobile, home appliance, and electronics sectors will have positive marginal increments in copper demand, while the real estate sector will have a negative marginal increment. Overall, the total copper demand will increase slightly [108]. 3.5 Comex Inventory Continues to Rise, while Inventories in Shanghai and London Are Difficult to Accumulate Continuously - In 2025, Comex inventory continued to rise significantly, approaching 400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the previous high premium in the US market caused by tariff expectations. In the Shanghai and London markets, low inventories may lead to squeeze - out risks from time to time [107]. 3.6 Domestic Supply in 2026 May Continue to Be in a Slight Surplus - According to the forecast, in 2026, the global refined copper production will be 2.8166 billion tons, and the demand will be 2.8076 billion tons, with a surplus of 90,000 tons [116].