国泰君安期货：能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a rebound, but the upside space is narrowing. In the short term, due to factors such as Iranian plant maintenance and low port unloading leading to significant destocking, there was a concentrated exit of short - positions, driving a co - rising of futures and spot prices. In the medium term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction, and high daily production and high import volumes may limit the upside price space in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts: The report presents historical data on the base of methanol on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE), 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][12]. - Domestic Spot Prices: It shows the historical market low - end prices of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Henan, the southern region of Shandong, and the import market price in Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17]. - International Spot Prices: Historical data on the CFR prices of methanol in China and Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Rotterdam from 2020 - 2025 are provided [18][19][20]. - Port - Inland Price Spreads: The price spreads between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and the southern region of Shandong from 2020 - 2025 are presented [21][22][23][24]. 3.2 Supply - New Capacity Summary: From 2024 - 2025, China added significant methanol production capacity, with 400 million tons in 2024 and 830 million tons in 2025. Internationally, there was also capacity expansion, with 355 million tons in 2024 and 165 million tons in 2025 [26]. - Maintenance Summary: Multiple methanol enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025. The report details the annual production capacity, shutdown and startup dates, actual daily losses, and other information of each enterprise [29]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.27% [5]. - Production by Process: Historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [32][33][34]. - Capacity Utilization by Region: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [36][37]. - Import - Related: It includes historical data on China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][42][43]. - Cost and Profit: Historical data on the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [55][56][57][58]. - Downstream Profits: The historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [62][63][66][67][68]. - Purchasing Volume by Region: It shows the historical purchasing volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [70][71][72][73][75][76][77][78]. - Raw Material Inventory by Region: The historical raw material inventory data of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [80][81][82][83]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: Historical data on the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China, East China, and Northwest China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [85][86][87]. - Port Inventory: Historical data on the weekly port inventory of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 are presented [91][92][93].