综合PMI跌破50，货币待加力

Group 1: PMI Overview - The composite PMI fell to 49.7% in November, down 0.3 percentage points from October, marking the first drop below the neutral line since early 2023[1] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remains below the neutral line[2] - The services PMI dropped significantly by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, contributing to the overall decline in the composite PMI[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery with new orders rebounding 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, although still below the neutral line, indicating weak demand[2] - The construction sector's business activity index increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, driven by infrastructure-related activities, but remains below the neutral line[4] - The services sector experienced a notable decline, with business activity dropping significantly, reflecting seasonal effects post-holiday[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The average composite PMI for October-November was 49.85%, a significant slowdown from the third quarter average of 50.43%[7] - New export orders in manufacturing rebounded sharply by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, indicating potential recovery in exports[3] - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, the highest in 18 months, suggesting rising input costs[3] Group 4: Policy Implications - The likelihood of increased monetary policy support is rising as economic indicators suggest continued slowdown[6] - The market remains skeptical about new supportive policies as the year-end approaches, with expectations for broad monetary easing not high[7] - The bond market's response to central bank bond purchases in November will be a key observation point for future monetary policy expectations[7]