投资策略周报：联储12月降息将至，反弹行情如何演绎？-20251130

Market Review - Global stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the Nasdaq, Taiwan Weighted Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index leading the gains. In the A-share market, major indices mostly rose, with micro-cap stocks, the CSI 2000, and the ChiNext Index showing the highest increases. The overall trading volume in the A-share market has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with net redemptions in equity ETFs and a slight increase in margin financing. Growth style stocks rebounded significantly, particularly in sectors like optical modules, AI applications, and lithium battery electrolytes, while dividend sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, banks, and coal declined. In the commodity market, metal prices rose, with London spot silver and LME copper reaching historical highs, while domestic coking coal showed weakness [1][2][4]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter a layout period for the year-end rally. In December, the market will be under observation for significant domestic and international policies, which may gradually increase risk appetite. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut is high, alleviating concerns over dollar liquidity and supporting the appreciation of the RMB, which is favorable for foreign investment in Chinese assets. Domestically, key meetings in mid-December will set the economic development goals and macro policy tone for 2026, with policies aimed at reducing competition and promoting consumption likely to benefit from policy catalysts. Key areas of focus include: 1) investment themes related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, energy storage, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals; 2) sectors benefiting from improved overseas liquidity, such as non-ferrous metals; 3) Hong Kong tech stocks that have seen significant adjustments [2][4]. Funding and Liquidity - The inflow of incremental funds into the market has slowed, leading to an accelerated rotation among industries. Since November, the daily trading volume in the A-share market has mostly been below 2 trillion yuan, continuing a trend of stock-based competition. As year-end approaches and investor risk appetite decreases, the speed of industry rotation has notably increased. 1) Margin financing data shows a net outflow of 13.9 billion yuan as of November 27, marking the first monthly net outflow since May; margin buying accounted for about 10% of A-share trading volume. 2) Equity ETFs saw a net outflow of 40.9 billion yuan this week, with technology-focused ETFs like ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 experiencing the largest redemptions, indicating a rise in profit-taking among investors as the tech sector rebounds. 3) Additionally, ETFs heavily held by state-owned funds saw a net inflow of 12.3 billion yuan last Friday, suggesting that the "national team" will continue to play a stabilizing role in the market during periods of increased volatility [4][30]. Economic Fundamentals - The PMI remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that a shift to profit-driven A-share performance will require more time. Since the fourth quarter, both supply and demand in the domestic economy have shown signs of weakening, reflected in declining industrial output and expanding declines in key real estate indicators. The manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in economic sentiment. The third-quarter reports confirmed that corporate earnings are at a low point, with broader improvements in profitability expected to wait until 2026 [4][30]. Policy Observation Window - The period from early to mid-December is crucial for observing domestic and international policies, which may gradually elevate market risk appetite and set the stage for a year-end rally. On the international front, the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 is anticipated to result in a significant probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Domestically, the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference will likely establish the economic development goals and macro policy tone for 2026, with expectations for policies to drive institutional deployment in new year-end rally sectors, particularly in areas focused on reducing competition, promoting consumption, and fostering new productivity [4][30].