动力煤产业链周度报告-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of thermal coal at the mine - mouth and ports are weakening, and the short - term trading sentiment is fading. The supply and demand situation of thermal coal is complex, with changes in domestic and international supply, various demand sectors showing different trends, and fluctuations in inventory and transportation aspects [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Price: The prices of thermal coal at the mine - mouth and ports are weakening, and the short - term trading sentiment is fading [4]. - Supply - Domestic: As of November 28, the weekly output of 462 sample mines was about 38.5 million tons, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate slightly declined. In October 2025, the total raw coal production was 406.75 million tons, a 1.15% decrease from the previous month and a 2.3% decrease from the same period last year. The global coal port departure volume decreased, and the departure volumes of Australian and Russian coal both declined. The volume of coal drifting to China increased, while that of Russian coal slightly decreased. As of November 21, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.3113 million tons, a 0.3612 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 1.039 - million - ton decrease from the same period last year [6][11][19]. - International: The global coal port departure volume decreased, and the departure volumes of Australian and Russian coal both declined [13]. - Demand - Power: The power coal consumption demand increased slightly week - on - week. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.32 million tons, a 0.04 - million - ton increase from the previous week; the average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 1.8709 million tons, a 0.038 - million - ton increase from the previous week; the average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.453 million tons, a 0.052 - million - ton increase from the previous week. The power generation in October decreased, and the power generation of thermal and new energy sources both declined significantly, while the contribution of wind and nuclear power increased [25]. - Metallurgy: The blast furnace operation weakened week - on - week, and the metallurgical demand had weak support [23]. - Chemical: The demand for chemical coal decreased week - on - week [26]. - Total demand: In October, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while that for heating increased rapidly [37]. - Substitute for demand: The total power generation in society decreased, and the power generation capacity of new energy sources declined. The utilization of wind and water energy decreased week - on - week [32][34]. - Inventory - Mine: As of November 14, the inventory of sample enterprises' mines was 3.125 million tons, an increase from the previous week and a 0.865 - million - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory of 462 sample mines decreased [40]. - Port: The inventory at northern ports increased significantly, and the thermal coal market at ports was in a stalemate recently [43]. - Transportation - Capacity: The transportation capacity was sufficient, the port inflow increased, and the outflow decreased slightly. The domestic thermal coal freight index declined from a high level, while the international dry - bulk freight increased [49][51]. - Price: The domestic thermal coal freight index declined from a high level, while the international dry - bulk freight increased [51].