宏观诡谲，需求难启

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - Stainless Steel: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - Indonesia: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - Philippines: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - Sulfide Nickel Ore: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - Production: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - Nickel Intermediates: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - Nickel Sulfate: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - Production: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - Price: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - Capacity and Production: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - Inventory: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - Cost and Profit: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - Traditional Sectors: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - Lithium - Battery Industry: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - Nickel: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].