PTA投产高峰期已过，估值有望迎来修复

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the PX market is expected to see both supply and demand increase, with the Chinese PX balance sheet likely to remain in a de - stocking state, though the de - stocking amplitude will narrow compared to 2025. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical [4][5][13]. - In 2026, without new PTA capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, leading to continued de - stocking and potential low - level recovery of processing fees. However, the supply elasticity of PTA remains, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [8][9][13]. - In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase. Assuming a 4.9% growth rate in polyester demand, MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, with the price center expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [11][12][14]. - In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - PX Balance Sheet Data - Demand: Calculated simply based on the estimated PTA production [4]. - Production: In 2026, China's new PX capacity is planned to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. The actual new production capacity mainly comes from Liaoning Huajin Aramco's 2 million tons and Fujia Dahua's 0.6 million tons of transformation and expansion. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 1.2 million tons of production in 2026. The average operating rate of China's PX in 2025 is expected to be 87.1%, and in 2026, the PX production is expected to increase by about 2 million tons compared to 2025, with a growth rate of 5.3%, and the average operating rate is estimated at 89% [4]. - Import: In 2026, the import demand is expected to continue to grow, with an estimated import of about 9.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the import dependence will remain around 20% [5]. - Summary: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow [5]. - PTA Balance Sheet Data - Demand: In 2026, the new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons. The average operating rate of polyester in 2025 is expected to be around 90%, and in 2026, it is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for PTA is expected to be about 2.88 million tons throughout the year [7]. - Production: In 2026, there are no PTA production capacity addition plans in China. However, the production of new devices put into operation in 2025 will gradually increase. It is expected that the total PTA production in 2026 will increase by about 2.9 million tons compared to 2025, with a production growth rate of 3.9%, and the average operating rate is expected to decline from 83% in 2025 to 81% [8]. - Net Export: In 2026, the PTA export volume is expected to decrease slightly compared to 2025 due to the increase in overseas supply [9]. - Summary: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, and PTA will remain in a de - stocking state, with processing fees expected to recover from a low level [9]. - MEG Balance Sheet Data - Demand: Similar to PTA, in 2026, new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons, and the average operating rate of polyester is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for EG is estimated to be about 1.65 million tons throughout the year [10]. - Domestic Capacity and Production: In 2026, China plans to put into operation 2.8 million tons of MEG capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.2%. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 0.95 million tons of production. The production of existing devices is expected to increase by about 1.25 million tons, and the overall domestic MEG production is expected to increase by about 1.8 million tons, with a production growth rate of 8.7% [11]. - Net Import: In 2026, the net import level is about 7.35 million tons, a slight decrease compared to 2025 [12]. - Summary: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PX: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. PXN is expected to be strong during the aromatics blending stockpiling and PX centralized maintenance periods and weak at other times [13]. - PTA: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, and processing fees are expected to recover from a low level. However, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [13]. - MEG: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [14]. - PF: In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - PR: In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Strategies - PX and PTA: For the 05 contract, consider long - hedging on dips. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity in the inter - period spread and the opportunity to go long on PTA processing fees in the inter - variety spread. In 2026, there are no new PTA device additions, and downstream polyester still has new capacity additions, so the PTA supply - demand situation will improve. PX new devices will mainly be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, so the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity can be considered [15]. - MEG: The annual - level unilateral price is expected to mostly operate in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton. The 01 contract is expected to be under pressure due to the new device commissioning, the 05 contract may have a rebound opportunity, and the 09 contract may be under pressure again due to the concentrated commissioning of devices [16].