年末存单到期翘尾，关注续发情况：存单周报（1124-1130）-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The year - end maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) is increasing, and there may still be pressure on the supply side. However, with the central bank's relatively active support, the pressure for significant price increases is relatively limited. It is advisable to consider the allocation value of CDs when the interest rate is above 1.65%. The supply side may still have demand due to factors such as the approaching deadline of the "interest rate adjustment bottom - line clause" and the large maturity volume in December. The demand - side driving force for CDs at the end of the year may be relatively limited. The inter - year capital market is expected to remain relatively stable, and state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs may fluct fluctuate around 1.65%, and it is recommended to increase the allocation around 1.7% [2][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply: Net Financing Slightly Rebounds, and the Term Structure Narrows - This week (November 24 - 30), the CD issuance scale was 5594.50 million yuan, with a net financing of - 2425.90 million yuan (compared to - 3740.00 million yuan in the previous week). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 15% to 21%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 33% to 34%. The issuance proportion of 1Y CDs decreased from 39% to 19%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 6.94 months (from 8.25 months) [2][5]. - Next week (December 1 - 7), the maturity scale will decline to 4488.10 million yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 3524.30 million yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in joint - stock banks and city commercial banks, and the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y CDs are relatively high, at 1735.80 million yuan and 2152.30 million yuan respectively [2][5]. 3.2 Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories are the Main Secondary Allocation Forces, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Slightly Decreases - In terms of secondary - market allocation institutions, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces. Wealth management's weekly net purchase decreased from 348.64 million yuan to 230.40 million yuan, and other product categories' weekly net purchase decreased from 503.96 million yuan to 379.82 million yuan. The net sales of money market funds increased from 176.54 million yuan to 257.35 million yuan [14]. - In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased from 89% to 88%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 88% to 86%, while that of joint - stock banks remained at 92% and state - owned banks at 80% [14]. 3.3 Valuation: The Pricing of CDs in the Primary and Secondary Markets Continues to Fluctuate Narrowly - In primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance interest rate of 1Y state - owned bank CDs remained at 1.65%. The 1M variety remained unchanged, 3M and 1Y increased by 1bp compared to last week, 6M increased by 2bp, and 9M decreased by 1bp [18]. - In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased slightly compared to last week, at the 16% historical quantile [18]. - In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1Y city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.59BP to 9.42BP, with the spread quantile around 11%. The spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 16.79BP to 17.75BP, with the spread quantile close to 52% [18]. - In secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1M variety decreased by 4bp compared to last week, 3M and 6M increased slightly, 9M increased by 1bp, and 1Y remained unchanged, at the 5% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 16% historical quantile [26]. 3.4 Comparison: The Spread between CDs and Medium - and Short - Term Commercial Papers Widens - The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated CD yield and the DR007:15DMA funding spread narrowed from 16.46BP to 15.69BP; the spread with the R007:15DMA funding spread narrowed from 14.02BP to 12.33BP. The 1Y treasury bond yield increased by 0.09bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds widened from 23.42BP to 23.83BP, with the quantile rising to around 6%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 1.59BP to 1.54BP, with the quantile dropping to around 0%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term commercial papers and CDs widened from 6.02BP to 8.06BP, with the quantile rising to 38% [33].