行业周报：煤价第四目标上穿过程兑现，稳价逻辑依旧-20251130

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has successfully crossed the fourth target, and the logic for price stability remains intact. The current dynamics are influenced by supply contraction and a surge in demand due to seasonal heating needs [3][4] - The report indicates that both thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process involves several stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balance in profitability between coal and power companies [4][13] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are still at historical lows, providing room for a rebound, especially with the onset of the heating season and supply-side policies [5][14] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Price Trends - As of November 28, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 816 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease from the previous week. The price at Guangzhou Port is 855 CNY/ton, having reached the target of 750 CNY for coal-power profitability [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant rebounds, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1670 CNY/ton, up from 1230 CNY/ton in July, marking a 48.4% increase [3][4] Investment Logic - The report outlines that the price of thermal coal will follow a recovery process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profitability balance for coal and power companies, with an ideal target price of around 750 CNY for 2025 [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY to 2064 CNY depending on market conditions [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][14] - Specific companies recommended include Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic, 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend logic, 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity, and 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [5][14]