如何理解存单利率刚性化+期限短期化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the broad deficit scale reached 14.36 trillion yuan, a more than 40% increase from 2023. Despite potential pressure on banks' liability sides from government bond supply, the combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has limited the upward movement of bond and certificate of deposit (CD) yields. CDs also face other disturbances, and it's not easy for their yields to remain stable [4][18]. - The short - term trend of CD issuance this year is mainly driven by demand and cost considerations. Next year may see a return to normalcy, but the proportion of 9M and 1Y CD issuance may still be lower than in 2024 [4]. - The year - end CD rally, usually a reflection of the expected decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year. In 2026, the continuation of broad fiscal expansion will still pressure CDs, and the effectiveness of policies like interest rate cuts on CDs is uncertain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This week (11.24 - 11.28) the bond market adjusted - Bond market adjustment: The bond market adjusted this week, with a slight recovery on Friday. Factors included concerns about the central bank's bond - buying scale in November, the boost to the stock market from the China - US presidential call, concerns about the new public fund fee regulations, and the impact of real - estate bond extensions. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 had significant adjustment pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, and recovered slightly on Friday [7]. - Stable funds during the month - end week: Despite being a month - end week, funds remained stable. DR001 stayed between 1.3% - 1.33% for five consecutive days, and the average DR001 in November was 1.37%, higher than in October but lower than in September [7]. - Narrow - range fluctuation of CD yields: The 1Y AAA CD yield fluctuated within 1 bp this week, ranging from 1.635% - 1.645%, and closed at 1.64% on Friday, up 0.5 bps from last Friday. The driving force mainly came from joint - stock banks, possibly due to the pressure on their NSFR indicators [8]. 3.2 Hot issues in CDs 3.2.1 CDs are in a stalemate of "unable to rise and unable to fall", and it's not easy for them not to rise - Low - volatility oscillation: Since August, CD yields have shown low - volatility oscillation. After the central bank's bond - buying announcement in late October, the impact on CDs was short - lived, and then they entered a new platform for oscillation [17]. - Impact of fiscal expansion: Globally, countries have entered a fiscal expansion cycle. In China, the broad deficit scale in 2025 increased significantly. Although it theoretically pressures banks' liability sides, the central bank's liquidity injection has limited the upward movement of yields. CDs also face other disturbances such as foreign investors' reduction and the activation of funds [4][18]. - Central bank's support: Twice this year, when the 1Y AAA CD yield approached or exceeded 1.7%, the central bank provided support. Also, the relationship between CD yields and MLF operating rates may have reversed after the MLF tender reform [19]. 3.2.2 The short - term trend of CD issuance this year is mainly driven by demand and cost considerations - Demand factor: Since the implementation of interest - rate pricing self - regulation for inter - bank deposits in late November 2024, money market funds have shifted their demand from inter - bank deposits to CDs. To reduce the risk of negative deviation under shadow pricing, money market funds have shortened their CD holding durations and increased their demand for short - term CDs [27]. - Cost factor: In the first quarter of this year, banks issued a large number of short - term CDs to overcome high - cost difficulties. Since the second quarter, the friendly liquidity environment has allowed banks to "roll - issue" short - term CDs to reduce comprehensive costs. Next year may see a return to normalcy, but the proportion of 9M and 1Y CD issuance may still be lower than in 2024 [30]. 3.2.3 The year - end CD rally, usually a reflection of the expected decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year - Weakened bond market rally: In the bond market, factors such as the uncertainty of public bond fund redemption fees, the weakening expectation of interest rate cuts, the low attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks, and concerns about future market changes have weakened the year - end rally [34]. - Weakened CD rally: In 2026, the continuation of broad fiscal expansion will pressure CDs. Although policies like interest rate cuts may be implemented, their impact on CDs is uncertain. The year - end CD rally may be weakened, and the benchmark assumption is that CD yields will remain above 1.6%, with further decline requiring unexpected factors. Attention should be paid to the December Politburo meeting and the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference [35].