供给硬约束托底，需求慢变量助推，煤价升势可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [3][11] - The supply side remains tight, with a decrease in coal production over the past four months, providing a solid support for coal prices [3][11] - Demand is gradually increasing, particularly in power generation, which is expected to drive down inventory levels in the downstream market [3][11] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong asset attributes [3][11] - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with expectations for overall valuation improvement [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 29, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 818 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][30] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1710 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][32] - International thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Newcastle coal at 87.5 USD/ton, up 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [2][30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.3%, down 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 3,000 tons/day (+0.85%) while coastal provinces have seen a slight decrease [3][48] - The overall supply remains tight, with expectations for coal prices to trend upward due to the supply-demand dynamics [3][11] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces has increased by 557,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces have seen an increase of 1,160,000 tons [3][48] - The available days of coal supply in inland provinces have decreased slightly, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][48] Company Focus - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong performance [12] - Companies with higher elasticity such as Yancoal Australia and Gansu Energy Chemical are also highlighted for potential investment [12]