南华期货聚丙烯产业周报：继续关注丙烷的支撑和PDH开工情况-20251130

Report Overview - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: The current market's main contradiction lies in the cost support for PP brought by the strong propylene price. The PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, driving the bottom of the market to rebound. In the short term, the market will rebound from the bottom, but in the medium to long term, pressure still exists [1]. Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The main contradiction in the current market is the cost support for PP from the strong propylene price. The profit of PDH plants has been compressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, and there may be marginal plant shutdowns in December. The PP supply is expected to decrease, while the demand is mixed, with some products showing a decline and others providing support. Overall, the PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term Trading Logic: The production profit of PDH plants has been pressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of plant shutdowns. The powder plant has shown negative feedback, leading to a rebound in PP. However, the weakening basis may drag down the rebound. Attention should be paid to the PDH plant's operating status and the PP basis change [5]. - Long - term Trading Expectation: Although the PP supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, the new plant construction in the first half of 2026 is relatively limited, and the macro - economic outlook is optimistic. Therefore, PP is expected to rebound from the bottom in the medium to long term [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range of polypropylene is 6300 - 6700 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.52% and a historical percentile of 18.7% over three years [10]. - Hedging Strategy: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, shorting PP futures and selling call options are recommended. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buying PP futures and selling put options are recommended [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Propylene and propane prices remain strong recently [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the release of the December CP price [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: On Friday, the market showed an obvious bottom - rebound trend. The position of the 01 contract decreased this week, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats decreased, while the top five profitable seats increased their long positions [19]. - Basis Structure: After the market rebounded on Friday, the PP spot price rose weakly, and the basis weakened significantly. As of Friday, the North China basis was -159 yuan/ton, the East China basis was -59 yuan/ton, and the South China basis was -9 yuan/ton [23]. - Spread Structure: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - economic expectations and fewer PP plants in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit of all production routes is not optimistic. The profit of PDH plants has dropped to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of marginal plant shutdowns [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The subsequent supply - demand pressure is not significant. The key is how PP digests the existing supply. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high plant maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and low imports [36]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PP operating rate is 78.15% (-0.14%). Some plants are expected to restart next week, increasing the supply. However, due to the low profit of PDH plants and the strong propane price, unexpected maintenance may increase, so the supply side is still cautiously optimistic [41]. 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - In October, PP imports were 27.31 tons, a decrease of 1.17 tons from September. Due to the falling domestic price, the import arbitrage window is difficult to open. Exports were 23.51 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous month. Due to weak overseas demand, exports are basically stable at 23 - 24 tons [43]. 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The current average downstream operating rate is 53.57% (+0.26%). The operating rates of different products vary. The overall PP demand is supported by the good performance of non - woven fabrics, pipes, and modified PP [46].