宏观点评：PMI连续8月处于线下的背后-20251130

Macro Overview - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold for the eighth consecutive month[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[2] Economic Signals - Supply and demand indicators show a rebound, with the production index at 50.0%, indicating a return to the expansion threshold[3] - New export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting a temporary easing in the US-China trade situation, although it remains in contraction territory[4] Price and Inventory Trends - The price indices for raw materials and factory output rose by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, suggesting an improvement in overall market prices[5] - Finished goods inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points, while raw material inventory remained stable, likely due to slight production recovery[5] Employment and Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI decline of 0.6 percentage points, while small and medium enterprises experienced a rise of 2.0 percentage points, indicating varying levels of economic pressure across company sizes[5] - The service sector PMI fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while the construction sector PMI increased to 49.6%[5] Future Outlook - Economic pressures are expected to persist into the fourth quarter, with a focus on upcoming policy meetings in December that will shape 2026 strategies[6] - Short-term policies are anticipated to provide support but may not significantly boost growth, as maintaining a GDP growth rate of 4.4% in Q4 is crucial for achieving the annual target of "keeping growth above 5%"[7]