等待行情修复

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that after the head - and - shoulders bottom breakdown, there was a significant decline. Wait for the short - term stabilization and subsequent repair market. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rebounded and then declined this week, and the short - term still awaits stabilization. TL2603's trend weakened significantly after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom. From the perspective of the wave theory, the decline starting from November 5th is considered a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [2]. - In the treasury bond futures data tracking, the main contracts are changing. The 2603 contracts' cash - and - carry arbitrage still needs to wait. Treasury bond futures declined overall this week, with the trading activity rising. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts increased overall, with a decline in TL. The IRR decreased for all except TL. Currently, the overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis - 1.1 Previous Trend Review: TL's repair was poor after the breakdown, and there was a significant decline in the middle of the week. T and TL declined significantly in the middle of the week. TL2603 rebounded on Monday after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom last week but was under pressure at the lower edge of the trading area in mid - early November. After the rebound, it declined again. On Wednesday, there was a significant increase in positions and a decline. It rebounded slightly on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 touched the 5 - day moving average on Friday and then declined, and the current form remains weak [7]. - 1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook: After the significant decline in the middle of the week, the trends of T and TL are weak, and the decline has暂缓. The focus is on the opportunity to participate in the upward repair of the market. T2603 broke below the 60 - day line on Wednesday and stood back on it and was supported on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 declined significantly after rebounding to the lower edge of the upper box on Monday. The decline of T2603 and TL2603 since November 5th has shown three waves. It is inclined to be a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. Even if it is a new downward wave since November 5th, a 4th - wave rebound can still be expected. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [12]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Tracking - Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on November 28th, the closing prices of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.745, 107.940, and 114.49 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, - 0.160, - 0.300, and - 0.88 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors [3][15]. - As of November 28th, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased overall, with a decline in TL. The CTD net bases of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were - 0.01, - 0.03, - 0.01, and - 0.14 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRRs corresponding to the CTDs of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.51%, 1.57%, 1.49%, and 1.84% respectively. Except for TL, all declined. The overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [19]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts increased overall this week [20].