转债市场周报：正股高波品种仍为优选-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the call between the Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite has recovered. The stock market oscillated upward last week, with the technology and consumer sectors performing well, and the dividend sector slightly adjusting. The bond market was weak due to strong stock - market sentiment and relevant rumors, with the yield rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week. In the convertible bond market, half of the individual convertible bonds rose last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the median price dropped 0.02%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the whole - market conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week [1][7][8]. - Looking forward, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut rising again and important meetings in December, along with the continuous progress of the industrial process and the upward revision of corporate profit expectations, the market still has room for further upward movement. For convertible bonds, at the current valuation level, the bond - bottom protection of debt - biased convertible bonds is limited. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying - stock varieties in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium and non - callable equity - biased individual bonds. In terms of direction, pay attention to growth sectors such as AI applications, energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as sectors such as photovoltaics and refining that are expected to benefit from policy support [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends Stock Market - Last week, the stock market oscillated upward. The technology and consumer sectors performed well, and the dividend sector slightly adjusted. The Shenwan primary industries showed that most industries rose, with communication (8.70%), electronics (6.05%), and others leading in gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (- 0.73%), banks (- 0.59%), and others lagging [7][8]. - The daily performance of the A - share market last week was as follows: on Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.31%, and the total market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.3 billion yuan from the previous day. On Tuesday, the three major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77%, and the total market turnover was 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 85.8 billion yuan from the previous day. On Wednesday, the three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, and the total market turnover was 1.80 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan from the previous day. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%, and the total market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.7 billion yuan from the previous day [7]. Bond Market - Last week, affected by strong stock - market sentiment and relevant rumors such as the new fund - sales regulations, the central bank's bond - buying scale, and public - fund redemptions, the bond market was weak, and the yield rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Last week, half of the individual convertible bonds rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the median price dropped 0.02%, the calculated arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the whole - market conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by - 2.04%, - 1.31%, and - 2.39% respectively, and were at the 85%, 96%, and 75% quantiles since 2023 [8]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market rose last week. Steel (+2.53%), building materials (+1.27%), machinery and equipment (+1.00%), and electronics (+0.97%) led the gains, while social services (- 3.45%), non - bank finance (- 2.00%), petroleum and petrochemicals (- 1.35%), and coal (- 1.16%) lagged [11][12]. - At the individual - bond level, Dazhong (lithium mine), Chun 23 (consumer electronics), Tianyuan (landfill leachate treatment), Haohan (network intelligence), and Liyang (Ali chip concept) convertible bonds led the gains; Bo 23 (non - ferrous metals), Wei 24 (solid - waste treatment & strong - redemption announced), Xinhua (lithium - battery concept), Yanggu (rubber additives), and Huicheng (waste - catalyst treatment) convertible bonds led the losses [1][13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 282.476 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume was 56.495 billion yuan, showing a decline compared with the previous week [16]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/28), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.76%, 33.06%, 27.88%, 17.8%, 13.9%, and 11.64% respectively, at the 98%/97%, 90%/87%, 94%/95%, 83%/74%, 86%/83%, and 94%/92% quantiles since 2010/2021. In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.01%, at the 1%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.86%, at the 86%/86% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.51%, at the 82%/83% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (2025/11/24 - 2025/11/28), no convertible bonds were announced for issuance, and Zhuomei Convertible Bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei, which belongs to the automotive industry. As of November 28, its market value was 5.317 billion yuan. The company is a professional enterprise in designing and manufacturing large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The issued convertible - bond scale is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+, and it was listed on November 24. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are all to be invested in the project of an annual output of 3 million sets of high - strength large - sized magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - As of the announcements on November 28, no convertible bonds are announced for issuance or listing in the next week (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5). Last week, 1 company (Lianrui New Materials) was approved for registration, 1 company (Shangsheng Electronics) passed the listing committee review, 1 company (Aike Technology) was accepted by the exchange, 1 company (Songyuan Safety) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 1 company (Shenling Environment) had a board - of - directors' plan. As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 145.89 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.72 billion yuan and 6 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 7.46 billion yuan [27].