Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - Price Trend: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - Basis: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - Spread: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - Overseas Demand: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - Domestic Demand: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - Global Total Iron Production: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - Iron Ore Supply: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - New Production Capacity: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - Overseas Consumption: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - Domestic Consumption: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].
供给持续放量，铁矿供需转宽松
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-30 13:58