铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251130

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has strong upside potential in 2026 due to limited supply growth and resilient demand, with attention on the scale of Indonesian production and photovoltaic production schedules in Q1. Short - term inventory trends in December depend on photovoltaic production and aluminum ingot imports [3]. - The alumina market remains under pressure, with prices likely to continue to be weak. Although it has reached a relatively low level, the supply - demand situation is still not favorable [4]. 3. Summary by Sections Aluminum - Price and Outlook: After a short - term adjustment, the market has a strong bullish expectation for aluminum. The AI - related energy and storage sectors are expected to drive aluminum demand. In 2026, the upside potential of aluminum prices is significant, but there may be a short - term dip in Q1 [3]. - Supply and Demand: In December, inventory depletion depends on photovoltaic production and imported aluminum ingots. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 590,000 tons this week. Downstream demand was average, with some products showing a decline in cumulative output year - to - date [3]. Alumina - Price and Market: Alumina prices continued to decline and are close to the low point in April. The market is bearish, but from a trading perspective, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high [4]. - Supply and Demand: Spot trading is limited, and inventory has increased. The production of alumina is still rigid, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [4]. Trading - Spread: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum strengthened [10][11]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts decreased slightly. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level [14][20]. Inventory - Bauxite: Port inventory and inventory days increased in the Steel Union's weekly data as of November 28. In October, the inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite ports in the阿拉丁 data showed a downward trend. The inventory of bauxite in alumina enterprises continued to increase in October. Port shipments from Guinea decreased, while sea - floating inventory increased [25][28][31]. - Alumina: Total inventory continued to increase. In the Steel Union's data, it increased by 59,000 tons this week. In the阿拉丁 data, as of November 27, the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons [44][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 590,000 tons as of November 27, showing obvious inventory depletion [52]. - Processed Products: Aluminum rod inventory showed a differentiated trend. In October, the finished - to - raw - material inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum plate - strips and foils showed opposite trends [57][60]. Production - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable, with a slight decline in October. Imported bauxite is an important factor in the growth of total supply. There were differences in production changes among different provinces [65][66]. - Alumina: Capacity utilization remained stable, but the supply - demand situation remained loose. The weekly production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.858 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Operating capacity remained at a high level, and production was also at a high level in recent years. The aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally [73]. - Downstream Processing: The production of aluminum plate - strips and foils increased slightly, while the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased. The overall operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased [76][77]. Profit - Alumina: Smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's data was 135.4 yuan/ton. Profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, while Guangxi had better profit performance [84]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Profits remained at a high level, but market expectations were disturbed by uncertainties such as the global economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [96]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, but downstream processing profits remained at a low level [97]. Consumption - Import and Export: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased. In October, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly [106][108]. - Apparent Demand: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while automobile production increased month - on - month [113].