地方债周度跟踪：发行提速但下周再降速，5000亿结存限额发行或已过半-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a weekly basis this period but are expected to decline significantly next period. As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period [4]. - As of November 28, 2025, the issuance of special new special-purpose bonds this period was 541 billion yuan, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 27 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 788 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds reached 13,508 billion yuan, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 19,989 billion yuan with a progress of 99.9%, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 2,204 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a weekly basis. As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period [4]. - Currently, the spreads of 15/20/30Y, especially 15Y, local government bonds over treasury bonds have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (November 24 - 30, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 351.359 billion yuan/326.212 billion yuan (last period was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan), and next period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the expected issuance/net financing is 108.717 billion yuan/60.494 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.41 years, longer than 14.30 years last period (November 17 - 23, 2025) [4][12]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period. The part exceeding 100% may come from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17 [4][20]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 105 billion yuan in total, including 21.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of November 28, 2025, 11 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 105 billion yuan, compared with 242.6 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan in the same regions and 1,091.3 billion yuan and 21.1 billion yuan nationwide in the same period last year [4][26]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 13,508 billion yuan (54.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 19,989 billion yuan (2.7 billion yuan issued this period) with a progress of 99.9%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (only 1.1 billion yuan of quota in Henan remains to be issued); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 2,204 billion yuan (78.8 billion yuan issued this period) [4][22]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Weekly Basis - As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025, and were at the 42.70% and 88.00% historical percentiles since 2023 respectively [4][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin were better than the national average [4].