Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-11-30 14:28Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading private national city gas company, with ongoing privatization efforts aimed at promoting industry chain integration [5][8]. - The natural gas retail business shows steady growth, benefiting from cost reductions and price adjustments, while the gas connection business's impact is expected to stabilize [8][44]. - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, which are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance growth [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, is a leading private clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure [14][15]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 263 city gas projects across 22 provinces and municipalities in China [14]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 113.858 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 109.853 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 112.714 billion in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 6.816 billion in 2023, decreasing to RMB 5.987 billion in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 6.248 billion in 2025 [4]. Privatization Process - The company is undergoing a privatization process led by its major shareholder, New Hope Group, which currently holds 34.28% of the company [5][38]. - The privatization plan includes a share exchange and cash payment, with a total value of HKD 80 per share, indicating a 12.8% upside from the closing price on November 28, 2025 [5][40]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s retail gas volume is projected to reach 262 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [5][48]. - The gas connection business has seen a decline in new residential connections, dropping from 2.622 million in 2021 to 1.617 million in 2024, but the impact on overall revenue is manageable compared to peers [5][74]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, with the smart home segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% from 2020 to 2024 [5][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in the energy sector, with a total installed capacity of 6.9 GW and 1.6 GW under construction as of September 2025 [5][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 80.284 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.52% as of mid-2025, indicating a stable financial position [2][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is competitive compared to peers [6].