东方证券煤炭行业周报：产地动力煤中长期合同价格落地，关注行业左侧布局机会-20251130

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal have been established, with a focus on left-side layout opportunities in the industry [2] - The current price level of coking coal is lower than that of thermal coal, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value, indicating that market pessimism is already reflected in stock prices [3][67] - The establishment of a monthly adjustment mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to reduce price volatility in the future [3] Industry Fundamentals - Supply and demand are generally stable, with shipping rhythm dominating coal price trends [7] - As of November 28, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from November 21, while coking coal futures closed at 1067 CNY, down 36 CNY/ton [7] - The operating rate of coal mines remains low, with 91.3% capacity utilization for thermal coal mines, down 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, and 86.0% for coking coal mines, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - Demand from the steel and construction sectors continues to weaken, while chemical demand remains high, providing some support [7][30] Key Events - The long-term contract prices for domestic thermal coal were officially released on November 17, with prices for 5500 kcal contracts in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia set at 496 CNY/ton, 548 CNY/ton, and 460 CNY/ton respectively, all higher than the local benchmark prices [7] Price Comparison and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal is at a historical low, with the ratio as of November 28 being 1.18, close to the historical minimum of 0.98 [7][27] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.48 times, with a ratio of 0.83 times compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that the current valuation of the coal sector is at a historical median level [7]