非银行金融行业研究：估值与业绩严重错配，非银板块具备配置性价比

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating a potential recovery in performance for undervalued leading brokerages as mergers progress and international business expands [3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant divergence between performance and valuation, with high earnings growth but stock prices under pressure, leading to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.35x, which is at the 33rd percentile over the past decade [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Focus on listed brokerages with better-than-expected Q3 results and a current PB of only 1.35x, recommending firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [3]. 2. Investment in Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from gene therapy investments [3]. 3. Attention to multi-financial firms with strong growth, particularly Hong Kong Exchanges, which will benefit from deepening connectivity and increased trading activity from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [3]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The brokerage sector's performance has lagged behind the market, with a year-to-date increase of 0% and a 15 percentage point underperformance compared to the broader market [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for performance recovery among leading brokerages due to ongoing mergers and international business expansion [3]. Insurance Sector - The introduction of innovative drugs into group health insurance in Shanghai is expected to accelerate by the end of December 2025, with over 80 high-value innovative drugs anticipated to be included [4]. - The new group insurance product will have a lower threshold for coverage compared to existing medical insurance, with an individual deductible of 35,000 yuan, effectively mitigating catastrophic financial risks for individuals [4]. - Initial sales projections for the new group insurance are estimated to be between 500 million to 1 billion yuan annually, with the potential for significant payouts for innovative drugs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a double-digit growth in new insurance premiums due to the upcoming "opening red" season and the favorable long-term outlook for the insurance sector [5]. - It recommends focusing on leading insurance companies with strong business quality and low liability costs, as well as property insurance companies benefiting from regulatory changes [5].