Haitong Securities International·2025-11-30 14:38Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Zhihu-W (2390 HK) with an "Outperform" rating, targeting a price of HK$14.80 [2][5][24]. Core Insights - Zhihu is positioned as China's leading Q&A-centric online content community, leveraging generative AI to enhance content supply and commercial conversion, which is expected to unlock new monetization opportunities [3][19]. - The company aims to achieve its first annual adjusted profit in 2025, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing costs [8][22]. - The integration of AI tools is transforming the community ecosystem, significantly increasing user engagement and monetization potential [23]. Financial Overview - For FY25, total revenue is projected to decline by 24% to RMB 27.5 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be RMB 33.34 million, marking a return to profitability [9][20]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 6.589 billion in Q3 2025, a 22% year-over-year decline, but better than market expectations [20][21]. - Adjusted gross profit margin is expected to improve from 60.6% in FY24 to 61.7% in FY25, indicating a focus on margin expansion [17][20]. Business Segment Outlook - Online marketing services are anticipated to bottom out in Q4 2025, with management confident in maintaining revenue levels in 2026 [21]. - Paid membership services are being refined to enhance user experience and community integration, with projected revenue of RMB 344 million for Q4 2025 [21][22]. - The vocational education segment has reached breakeven and is now included in the "Other" business category, contributing to overall revenue stability [21][22]. Valuation Analysis - The report assigns a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.2 for FY25, reflecting a cautious valuation approach due to ongoing business adjustments [13][24]. - The target price of HK$14.80 is based on the company's unique positioning in the Q&A community and the anticipated benefits from AI integration [5][24].