周观：如何看待波动带来的配置机会（2025年第46期）

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the configuration opportunities brought by the recent fluctuations in interest rates and predict the yield points of 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y national bonds in 2026 [1][14] - Evaluate the impact of a series of US economic data on the future trend of US Treasury yields and analyze the Fed's possible interest - rate adjustment direction [15][23] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - Analysis of Chinese Bond Market Fluctuations: From 2025.11.24 - 2025.11.28, the yield of the 10 - year active national bond rose 1.65bp to 1.8290%. Interest rates showed significant fluctuations this week, and if the fund redemption fee rate new rules are implemented, it may create good configuration opportunities [10][14] - Analysis of US Economic Data and Treasury Yield Trends: A series of US economic data, including PPI, durable goods orders, and unemployment benefits, have been released. The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut has increased, and the future trend of US Treasury yields is affected by multiple factors [15][23] 2. Domestic and International Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - Market Operations: From 2025/11/21 - 2025/11/28, the net investment in the open - market operations was - 15722 billion yuan, mainly through reverse repurchase and MLF operations [29] - Interest Rate Changes: The money - market interest rates showed certain fluctuations. For example, the R, DR, and SHIBOR rates changed to varying degrees [30] 2.2 Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity Prices: Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices fluctuated. For example, the price of LME 3 - month copper rose 3.68% [53] - Bond Yields: The yields of US Treasury bonds showed a pattern of short - term increase and long - term decline, and the term spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year, 10 - year and 3 - month US Treasury bonds decreased [67][70] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale and Structure: A total of 116 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 3513.59 billion yuan, including 1173.37 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 2252.72 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 87.50 billion yuan of new general bonds [76] - Provincial Issuance Ranking: The top five provinces in terms of issuance amount were Henan, Hubei, Shanghai, Hebei, and Sichuan [79] 3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - Trading Volume and Activity: The stock of local government bonds was 54.46 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 3748.96 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan [92] - Yield Changes: The yields of local government bonds generally increased [95] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - Not provided in detail in the given content 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - Total Credit Bond Issuance: A total of 345 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 3442.84 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2235.67 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 1207.16 billion yuan, which decreased by 228.25 billion yuan compared with last week [98] - Issuance by Bond Type: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds were 14.49 billion yuan, 951.47 billion yuan, - 63.08 billion yuan, and 232.14 billion yuan respectively [102] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Interest - Rate Changes: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills increased by 5.56bp, while those of medium - term notes and corporate bonds decreased by 16.57bp and 25.62bp respectively [107] 4.3 Secondary - Market Trading Overview - Trading Volume by Bond Type: The total trading volume of credit bonds was 5431.04 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types such as short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds [109] 4.4 Maturity Yields - Yield Changes: The yields of various credit bonds generally increased, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds [111][114][116] 4.5 Credit Spreads - Spread Changes: The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, but there were also some exceptions [122][125][128] 4.6 Grade Spreads - Spread Changes: The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [131][135][139] 4.7 Trading Activity - Active Bonds: The report lists the top five actively traded bonds for each type of credit bond, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [145] 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - Rating Increases: The ratings of several companies, including Qingdao Dongjiakou Development Group Co., Ltd., were upgraded [147] - No Rating Decreases: There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [147]