降息预期提升贵金属与铜铝并举，重视白银新高的信号意义

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The weakening dollar and rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a recovery in risk assets, with silver leading the way. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 80%, benefiting precious metals and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of silver, which has recently reached a new historical high due to futures market dynamics. The outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of continued economic recession in the U.S. and attractive valuations in the A-share market for gold stocks [4]. - Industrial metal prices have strengthened, driven by enhanced rate cut expectations, with copper and aluminum showing significant price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that the weakening dollar and the anticipated rate cuts are driving precious metals, particularly silver, to new highs. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment and trading structures favor silver's continued rise [4]. - For gold, the report maintains a bullish stance, predicting that if gold prices break previous highs, the sector will see significant recovery in valuations. The report recommends focusing on specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to improve the short-term outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price movements include a 3.7% increase in LME copper and a 2% increase in LME aluminum [4][21]. - The report also discusses the supply dynamics, indicating that copper and aluminum inventories have shown mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories have decreased [4][36]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for lithium, with supply and demand dynamics expected to shift positively. The recovery in lithium prices is anticipated as production constraints and rising demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continue [4]. - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value appreciation, particularly in light of government policies affecting supply and ongoing demand recovery [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.16% increase compared to a 1.40% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index over the past week [12][15].