Soochow Securities·2025-11-30 15:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry, particularly focusing on the gold and jewelry sector [1]. Core Insights - The demand for gold and jewelry is expected to recover significantly, driven by a stable increase in gold prices since 2025 and a rebound in overall consumer spending [1][14]. - Major listed companies in the gold and jewelry sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with strong cash flow quality and dividend capabilities, making them attractive investment opportunities [1][14]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, Chao Hong Ji, Cai Bai Co., China Gold, and Hong Kong stocks such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant recovery in the performance of leading Hong Kong gold and jewelry companies, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, in FY26H1, with Chow Tai Fook reporting revenue of HKD 38.986 billion (down 1.1% YoY) and net profit of HKD 2.534 billion (up 0.1% YoY) [5][10]. - Luk Fook Holdings achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion (up 25.6% YoY) and net profit of HKD 619 million (up 42.52% YoY) in the same period [5][10]. - The same-store sales for both companies in mainland China showed significant recovery, with Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales up 2.6% YoY in FY26H1 [11]. Profitability - The increase in gold prices and adjustments in product mix have positively impacted profitability, with Chow Tai Fook maintaining a gross margin of 30.5% and Luk Fook achieving a record high gross margin of 34.7% [12][12]. - Both companies have shown improvements in their expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Trends - The report notes that the gold price has been on a stable upward trend since 2025, which consumers have adapted to, leading to an anticipated rapid release of terminal consumption demand in 2026 [14]. - The report emphasizes that the tax reform in November is expected to benefit compliant gold and jewelry brands by increasing market concentration [14].