宏观量化经济指数周报20251130：国债买卖或重长期效应轻短期规模-20251130

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.86%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.96%, down 0.04 percentage points from October, and the demand index is 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 31.7% year-on-year as of November 29, indicating continued weakness in real estate sales[7] - Passenger car sales averaged 71,131 units per day in the week ending November 23, down 4,871 units year-on-year, with total retail sales of 1.384 million units in November, a decline of 11.0% year-on-year[22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on November 26 to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to promote consumption growth[7] Group 3: Export and Trade - The new export orders index in the November PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in export growth[7] - The total export value of South Korea for the first 20 days of November increased by 8.20% year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to October[34] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The ELI index is at -0.61%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a focus on long-term effects of government bond transactions rather than short-term scales[11] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 164.2 billion yuan, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1,511.8 billion yuan[46]