格林大华期货早盘提示-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the over 10% return of emerging market local currency bonds next year [1] - Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is at the top and starting to weaken due to consecutive wrong US policies [2] - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December has risen significantly to 80% as employment data weakens and consumer K - type differentiation intensifies [2] - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years as GPU utilization is high, and there is huge demand for AI development [2] - The future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic and Financial News - Morgan Stanley's team led by Rajiv Batra upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" and believes the possibility of a significant rise next year is higher than potential downside risks, and the recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1] - Driven by the weakening dollar and AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the 2026 return rate of emerging market assets to be 8%, and Bank of America is optimistic about over 10% returns on emerging market local currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028, affecting emerging markets through technology exports and metal prices [1] - Bridgewater's co - CIO Greg Jensen refutes the AI bubble theory, stating that the market fails to understand the profound changes AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into the field [1][2] - Quark AI glasses are released, marking Alibaba's entry into the AI glasses market. The glasses are built - in with Qianwen Assistant, integrating Alibaba's core ecological scenarios [1] - DeepSeek's new open - source mathematical model DeepSeekMath - V2 achieves a gold - medal level in a global high - school math competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source AI [1] - Beijing proposes a space data center construction plan to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with over gigawatt (GW) power in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [1] - Tokyo's core CPI in November rises 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. Due to inflation pressure and yen weakening, the possibility of a December interest - rate hike increases [1] - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment in November, multiple US stock market indicators have been "reset", correcting extreme long positions in large - cap tech stocks and improving market breadth [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - type differentiation intensifies, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families tighten their belts. The probability of a December Fed interest - rate cut rises to 80% as employment data weakens [2] - Industry leaders, including those from Alibaba, Google, and NVIDIA, are optimistic about AI development, with high GPU utilization and huge future demand [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists believe the future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion. US data center planning capacity has increased sharply, and developers are building their own power plants [2] - US retail sales in September increase only 0.2%, lower than expected, and private enterprises' job cuts are accelerating, raising concerns about an economic slowdown [2]