金信期货日刊-20251201

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on the PVC second - main contract, and there are four reasons for this view: valuation and cost support, export demand increment, policy and supply - demand marginal improvement, and sentiment and funds drive [2][3]. - For stock index futures, the current rebound is expected to continue, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase rising or sell on dips [12]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. - Glass can be viewed with a slightly bullish oscillatory mindset due to policy - driven supply - side adjustment [19]. - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week, and there are multiple factors supporting the market, so it is advisable to grasp long opportunities [21]. - Pulp futures are in a slightly bearish oscillatory trend, with inventory showing a slight decline [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Second - Main Contract - Valuation and cost: The current PVC price is at a near - decade low, with the whole industry in loss (700 yuan/ton loss for the calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for the ethylene method). Coal prices are firm, and the decline in caustic soda prices weakens the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" support, leading to a supply contraction expectation [3]. - Export demand: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports are expected in the fourth quarter [3]. - Policy and supply - demand: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and some enterprises have reduced their loads, alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and funds: Macroeconomic policies have released positive signals, increasing market risk appetite and driving up futures prices [3]. Stock Index Futures - The index opened lower in the morning on the last day of November, then rose and closed at the daily high. The current rebound is expected to continue next week, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to last for some time. It is not advisable to chase rising or sell on dips [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply loosening has further fermented. The domestic demand support is weak, and it is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory reduction started this week. The main drivers are policy - driven supply - side adjustment. Technically, it can be viewed with a slightly bullish oscillatory mindset [19]. Methanol - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal port inventories, supply disruptions due to concentrated gas restrictions at Iranian plants, and active port trading sentiment [21]. Pulp - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decline. The inventory trend shows a slight decline, and the futures market is in a slightly bearish oscillatory trend [25].