粤开宏观前瞻2026：对中国经济和宏观调控的思考与建议

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience with two "above expectations" and two "below expectations" characteristics, showing a "front high and back low" trend throughout the year[1] - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with a nominal GDP growth target of 5% as well, indicating a need for price recovery embedded in growth targets[2] Key Economic Drivers - The main economic lines for 2026 will focus on real estate and local government debt, with exports and central government-supported infrastructure investment serving as primary support forces[2] - In 2025, China's exports grew by 5.3% year-on-year, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures[8] Challenges and Risks - The real estate market's recovery in 2025 was slower than expected, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline of 10.6%[10] - Internal challenges include low consumer spending and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, which may prolong the recovery process[28] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy should be proactive, with a recommendation for a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% in 2026 to counteract the negative effects of real estate downturns and local government debt[33] - Monetary policy should leverage the opportunity presented by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to further lower domestic interest rates and stimulate economic recovery[34] Consumer and Investment Outlook - Consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, supported by subsidy policies in childcare and pensions, alongside a potential increase in service consumption[24] - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 1.8% in 2026, with real estate investment expected to decrease by 15.2%[26]