南华期货原油产业周报：震荡格局延续，关注俄乌和谈进展-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market maintains a volatile pattern, with short - term multi - and short - factors in balance, but the medium - to long - term supply surplus pressure remains unchanged, and oil prices are in a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the substantial progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break out of the volatile range, and it is recommended to play lightly within the range. The long - term trading logic depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases and US sanctions on Russia loosen, and OPEC+ production policies are relaxed, supply pressure will increase, while the global economic weakness may limit demand growth [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The crude oil market shows a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and US sanctions on Russian energy companies support oil prices at the bottom, but the expectation of increased Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions relief and long - term supply surplus concerns suppress oil prices. Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia, weakening the support for oil prices [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The short - term market is volatile and relatively stable. - Strategy Suggestions: For single - side trading, operate within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and support around $62/ton for Brent crude oil. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Tensions in Venezuela with the US, the UK's delay in sanctioning Lukoil, and two oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Black Sea may support oil prices [7][8]. - Negative Information: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation lowered the official selling prices of most of its December - loaded crude oil grades [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks: The progress of the talks will affect market expectations of Russian oil supply. A breakthrough may increase supply surplus concerns, while a deadlock may raise geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting: OPEC+ may keep the Q1 2026 oil production unchanged, and the market is worried about supply surplus risks [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - Trend Analysis: International oil prices remain stable, continuing the recent volatile pattern and declining for the fourth consecutive month [14]. - Domestic Market: The SC2601 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 455.9 yuan/ton last week, up 0.44% week - on - week. The trading volume was 55,800 lots, and the open interest was 73,000 lots [16][17]. - International Market: The settlement price of the ICE Brent crude oil futures main contract was $62.38/barrel, up 0.69% week - on - week; the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract settled at $58.48/barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week. The trading volume of the Brent contract was 1.5387 million lots, and the WTI contract had a trading volume of 1.4125 million lots with an open interest of 379,500 lots, an increase of 42,000 lots [18][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $1.23/barrel, the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.46/barrel, and the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was - 5.6 yuan/barrel [28]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the SC - Brent spread was $0.58/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $4.65/barrel [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - This week, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and refinery profits were divided. The East - West crack spreads weakened [44]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - EIA slightly raises the forecasts for global and US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. In October, global crude oil and related liquid production decreased by 310,000 barrels per day compared to September, while US crude oil production increased by 10,000 barrels per day [77]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on US refinery crude oil weekly feed and operating rates, as well as Chinese refinery operating rates, reflecting the demand situation in the refining industry [68][70]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventories [74]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on US and Russian crude oil export volumes and related shipping data [76]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - In October, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production decreased compared to September. EIA slightly raises the forecasts for OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 [77].