高盛闭门会-美股对冲基金和共同基金，仓位分析板块轮动年末展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral market position for hedge funds, with a high leverage level and significant risk exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2025, only 28% of U.S. mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, leading to a historical low cash holding of 1.2% as funds chase market returns [1][2]. - Hedge funds maintain a neutral market position but exhibit high leverage, indicating substantial risk exposure [1][2]. - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in the technology sector due to its high index weight, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (excluding Tesla) remain favored by hedge funds [1][2]. - Mutual funds have overweighted the utility sector for the first time, while both fund types are overweight in industrials, benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom [1][2]. - The healthcare sector is favored as a defensive play and an AI hedge, with its valuation discount at historical highs attracting both mutual and hedge funds [1][2][7]. Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In 2025, mutual funds have reduced cash positions to 1.2%, reflecting a trend to keep pace with strong stock market performance [2]. - Hedge funds are cautious in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in travel and leisure, indicating recession risks [3][13]. Sector Allocation - The technology sector is the most sold-off by hedge funds, with funds shifting towards healthcare, which has seen strong performance this year [9][10]. - The healthcare sector is viewed as a defensive industry and has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq index, making it attractive during uncertain economic conditions [6][7]. Investment Strategies - Hedge funds are employing macro products to hedge beta risk and are focusing on short-selling opportunities to enhance returns [5][8]. - Mutual funds are advised to manage liquidity carefully and diversify risk, while hedge funds should monitor macroeconomic changes and adjust positions flexibly [8]. Future Outlook - The healthcare sector's valuation remains attractive despite recent gains, with potential growth driven by fundamental factors [11]. - Consumer discretionary sectors may present opportunities if fiscal stimulus leads to increased consumer spending [12].