Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium in the oil market has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. - For methanol, the potential bullish factors from the previous shutdown in Iran have started to materialize. The market has stopped falling and stabilized, with the futures price rising on reduced positions and the monthly spread starting to recover from the bottom. It is expected that a short - term bottom has emerged. In the future, supply is expected to remain at a high level, limiting the upward space for methanol. It is expected that the market will gradually shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. It is advisable to wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. - For urea, the futures price has been oscillating higher, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. With low valuations, the downside space for urea is relatively limited, and prices are expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. In the future, attention should be paid to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side. At low prices, it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently adopt a neutral approach. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises remains at a low level for the year, and the valuation pressure is relatively small in the short term. However, the supply side has few maintenance operations, and production is at a historical high. Multiple new plants are expected to start trial production in the short term. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may provide some support to the futures price [23]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains at a high level, while downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and the overall load center is low. It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. - For PTA, in the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and recover, unexpected maintenance is expected to gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fiber are relatively low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the approaching off - season for bottle chips, it is difficult for the load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. - For ethylene glycol, on the industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected maintenance operations. The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the import volume will decrease slightly. The inventory build - up rate at ports may slow down. In the medium term, as maintenance ends, domestic production is still expected to be high, and with new plants gradually coming into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 8.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% increase, at 453.90 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.90 million barrels to 13.52 million barrels, a 6.23% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 1.95 million barrels to 8.01 million barrels, a 19.62% decline; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.19 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 0.78% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 46.24 million barrels, a 5.44% decline [2][9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as verification [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang increased by 5, remained flat in southern Shandong, and increased by 2.5 in Inner Mongolia. The futures contract 01 increased by 21 yuan, closing at 2135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10, reaching - 84 [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is expected to have a short - term bottom. In the future, supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to shift to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. Wait and see on the single - side trading and focus on positive spread opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Urea - Market Information: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 20, 10, and 10 respectively. The futures contract 01 increased by 9 yuan, closing at 1677 yuan, with a basis of - 27. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, reaching - 66 [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to gradually move out of the bottom range. At low prices, consider buying on dips. In the future, pay attention to export and off - season storage demand on the demand side, and winter gas - based shutdowns and cost support on the supply side [7]. Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas has gradually receded, and subsequent bullish factors are diminishing. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are low. The fundamental driving force for rubber has weakened marginally and is currently following macro - level fluctuations. There are different views from the long and short sides. As of November 27, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.91%, 3.34 percentage points higher than last week and 3.98 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.37%, 0.40 percentage points lower than last week and 6.33 percentage points lower than the same period last year. New orders have slowed down, and tire factory inventories have increased. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1080000 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Adopt a neutral approach currently. Wait and see or conduct short - term quick - in and quick - out trading. Partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract increased by 32 yuan, closing at 4549 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4490 (+40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 59 (+8) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 290 (-9) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased to 2475 (+25) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. Factory inventory was 323000 tons (+7000), and social inventory was 1043000 tons (+10000) [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the medium term, before the industry substantially reduces production, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 68.95%, a 0.30% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 million tons to 16.42 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract's closing price was 6789 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 49300 tons to 454000 tons, and the trader's inventory decreased by 3300 tons to 47100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, narrowing by 4 yuan/ton [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract's closing price was 6409 yuan/ton, a 114 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, weakening by 114 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, an 0.8% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise's inventory decreased by 47500 tons to 546300 tons, the trader's inventory decreased by 12900 tons to 200500 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 65300 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 380 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In a weak supply - demand background, the overall inventory pressure is high. When the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year, it may support the futures price [23]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract increased by 112 yuan, closing at 6830 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (-29), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 28 yuan (+12). China's PX load was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; Asia's load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas GS 550000 - ton plant in South Korea reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. In November, South Korea exported 275000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4074000 tons, a 48000 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 260 dollars (-11), the South Korean PX - MX was 109 dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 105 dollars (+5) [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that PX will experience a slight inventory build - up in November, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [24]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract increased by 68 yuan, closing at 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4635 yuan. The basis was - 38 yuan (-2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 52 yuan (+2). The PTA load was 73.7%, a 2.7% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on November 21 was 2230000 tons, a 33000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 30 yuan to 160 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 220 yuan [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: On the supply side, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. On the demand side, the load is expected to remain high in the short term, but it is difficult for the bottle - chip load to increase. There is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [25]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract increased by 12 yuan, closing at 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 18 yuan, at 3882 yuan. The basis was 4 yuan (-7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan (-20). The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, a 2.3% increase; among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a 5.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 87%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 72%. The import arrival forecast was 95000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on November 27 was 13000 tons. The port inventory was 732000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 828 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 668 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 74 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 730 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the medium term, as new plants come into operation, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak. Short on rallies in the medium term [27].
能源化工日报-20251201
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-01 01:10