格林大华期货早盘提示：股指-20251201

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that China's stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [3]. - A team led by Rajiv Batra, the Asia head and co - head of global emerging market equity strategy at J.P. Morgan, upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1][2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The main indices in the two markets pulled back after rising on Thursday, which is a normal technical trend, and the direction of shock - recovery remains unchanged [1][2][3]. - There is a high probability of a significant increase in the Chinese stock market next year compared to potential downside risks. The recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1][2][3]. - There should be no so - called AI bubble in the next three years, as current GPU utilization is high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main indices of the two markets showed divergent trends, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.58 trillion yuan, continuing to shrink. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,526 points, up 11 points or 0.25%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,969 points, down 2 points or - 0.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,031 points, up 80 points or 1.15%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,334 points, up 76 points or 1.06% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, Rare Metals ETF, Satellite ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and New Energy Vehicle ETF, while the top losers were Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF, Bank ETF Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine Innovative Drug ETF. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were forestry, titanium metals, energy metals, communication engineering, and movie theater indices, while the top losers were oil and gas exploration, national banks, traditional Chinese medicine, insurance, and coal mining indices [1]. - Net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices were 1.5 billion, 1 billion, 600 million, and 60 million yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important News - Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote in People's Daily that China should adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, combine expanding consumption with the development of new - quality productive forces, and expand the supply of high - quality consumer goods and services [1]. - Measures should be taken to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution, and strive to achieve synchronous growth of residents' income and economic growth, as well as synchronous growth of labor remuneration and labor productivity [1]. - The investment popularity of the dividend sector has continued to rise recently. The issuance pace of dividend - themed funds has accelerated, and the new issuance scale this month is the highest of the year. More than 10 billion yuan has flowed into existing ETFs, and the share of many dividend - themed ETFs has reached a new high since listing [1]. - Greg Jensen, co - chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, refuted the theory of an AI bubble in a podcast, stating that the market has not understood the profound changes that AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into this field [1][2]. - The Beijing Space Data Center construction plan proposes to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with a power of over gigawatt (GW) in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [2]. - Quark AI Glass was officially launched, marking Alibaba's official entry into the AI glasses market [2]. - DeepSeek's newly released open - source mathematical model, DeepSeekMath - V2, reached the gold - medal level in the world - renowned most difficult high - school mathematics competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source artificial intelligence [2]. - Morgan Stanley said that China's truck electrification market is booming rapidly. In October, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks increased by 144% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 29%, expected to rise to 35% in 2026; the penetration rate of electric light trucks will rise from 10% in 2025 to 38% in 2027, and battery demand will soar from 30 GWh to 150 GWh [2]. - Driven by the weak US dollar and the AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging - market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the more than 10% return of emerging - market local - currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028 [2]. - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment of the US stock market in November, multiple indicators have now completed a "reset" [2]. - The core CPI in Tokyo rose 2.8% year - on - year in November, exceeding the market expectation of 2.7%. The possibility of a December interest - rate hike has increased due to continued inflationary pressure and the recent weakening of the yen [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The adjustment of the main indices in the two markets on Thursday was a normal technical correction, and the upward trend remains intact [1][2][3]. - The upgrade of the rating of Chinese stocks by J.P. Morgan and the new issuance of 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs are expected to bring more incremental funds to the market [2][3]. - Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, the Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2][3]. - From January to October this year, the total amount of overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen, and the upward trend will continue [1][2][3]. - Six government departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a document to promote consumption, encouraging platform companies to use AI technology to tap user needs and match product and service recommendations [3]. - The bullish sentiment of traders towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - Multiple Fed governors have signaled a dovish stance. US retail sales in September were lower than expected, and the lay - off rate has accelerated. The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen to over 80% [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, as the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen. Futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, with interval trading [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the stock index is in a shock - recovery period, investors should look for opportunities to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [3].