黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold futures are in an upward trend, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and upward trend with a cumulative increase of 2.54%. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle [7]. - Silver futures are in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and strengthening trend. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the gold price was volatile and upward, with a 2.54% increase. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, a weaker US dollar index, and continuous capital inflow. However, the upward momentum was restricted as the market had partially priced in the easing expectation before the December FOMC meeting. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle in the long - term [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 may continue high - level volatility in the short - term. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Related Data Situation: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27]. Silver Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [31]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price was volatile and strengthening. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, continuous depletion of global silver inventory, recovery of industrial demand, and large - scale capital inflow. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle in the long - term [31]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2602 was in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2602 may strengthen in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - Related Data Situation: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47].