国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251201

Report Overview - Report Date: December 1, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Focus: Analysis of the futures market for black series commodities, including iron ore, steel products, ferroalloys, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to trade in a low range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon is subject to market sentiment and is expected to trade in a low range; ferromanganese silicon has firm ore prices and is also expected to trade in a low range [2][10] - Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a wide range [2][16] - Logs are expected to trade weakly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.69%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 23,368 lots. Spot prices for most imported ores declined, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis for some contracts increased [4] - Macro and Industry News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [4] - Trend Intensity: -1, indicating a bearish outlook Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Fundamental Data: Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.27%, also with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices showed mixed changes, and some basis and spreads changed [6] - Macro and Industry News: In the week of November 27, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed various trends for different products [6] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils, indicating a neutral outlook Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: Spot prices for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon remained stable, while some prices for manganese ore increased. Various price spreads changed, including basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads [11] - Macro and Industry News: There were changes in production, inventory, and procurement prices in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon markets in November [12][15] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices for coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, and some basis and spreads changed [16] - Macro and Industry News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook Logs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices for different log contracts showed various trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - Macro and Industry News: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook